A participatory foresight approach to envisioning post-pandemic urban development pathways in Tokyo

Ensuring sustainable urban futures demands varied approaches, particularly with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, which presents a unique situation and experience for reimagining urban futures. A considerable number of scientific inquiries have adopted participatory foresight approaches to imagining sustainable urban development pathways. However, not many have used a similar approach to envision urban development pathways in a post-COVID-19 era. Based on available evidence on the impacts of COVID-19 on urban forms and lifestyles and citizens’ experiences during the pandemic, such a study is imperative to better understand how people from different demographic groups envision an ideal post-pandemic city. Using the Greater Tokyo Area as a case study, we adopted the Q methodology to determine post-pandemic urban development pathways from the subjective viewpoints of diverse stakeholders. We identified four development pathways for an ideal post-pandemic city. The first pathway is a resilient city with good neighborhood accessibility and sustainable urban regeneration. The second and third pathways, shared by younger people, focus on pro-environmental climate change mitigation (city compactness, shared mobility) and pro-urban resilience, respectively. The final pathway imagines a post-pandemic city that is accessible, safe, and smart. We found that different age groups perceive their ideal cities differently, especially when emphasizing the nexus between pandemics and cities. The study illustrates the need to adopt more participatory approaches in designing future urban development pathways since varied perspectives of an ideal city exist among different age demographics. These approaches promote equitable, inclusive, and transparent urban planning, advancing community support for policymaking and implementation.