应用 Logistic 回归分析企业财务安全方面的车辆运营经济效益

Logistics Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI:10.3390/logistics8020046
M. Grzelak, Paulina Owczarek, R. Stoica, D. Voicu, R. Vilău
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:运输公司车辆使用效率的一个可衡量特征是运输订单的收入,这对公司的盈利能力有重大影响。因此,熟练分析与车辆运行有关的参数及其对底线的影响非常重要。运输公司在管理运营时,会采取措施降低运营成本。上述情况使得文献中出现了大量关于车辆损坏或系统部件磨损分析以及预测方法的研究。然而,关于具体订单参数对经济效益的影响的研究却比较缺乏,这也是以下研究的一个研究方向。研究方法:本文旨在从企业财务安全的角度分析车辆运行的经济效益。主要研究问题是运输订单的各种参数如何影响其盈利能力。在研究过程中,我们采用了文献批判分析、数学建模和推理方法。我们对 2021-2022 年波兰快速消费品(FMCG)行业的中小型企业(SMEs)执行的运输订单进行了详细分析,这些企业的特点是拥有载重量不超过 3.5 吨的轻型商用车辆。由于采用的是二元变量形式,因此设计了一个逻辑回归模型。根据模型的估计参数和计算出的几率,可以评估所选因素对订单利润率的影响。结果显示除其他因素外,研究表明,就车辆日行驶里程而言,几率商表明,每多行驶一公里,订单盈利的概率就会增加 1%。考虑到行车速度,估计其值每增加 1 公里/小时,订单的盈利概率就会降低 3%。另一方面,货物重量每增加 1 公斤,订单盈利的概率就会增加 9%。结论通过这项研究,证实了中小企业在运输车队管理过程中可应用的低成本分析工具有限,而且使用的数学模型简单且不具扩展性。同时,这些模型并不是 "黑盒子",因此可以得出结论并将其应用到运营中。所获得的结果有助于制定公司在车辆运营领域的总体战略,并能支持与后续订单管理有关的决策过程,指出那些能带来最高利润的订单。上述内容对于经常处于盈利边缘的中小型企业来说非常重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Application of Logistic Regression to Analyze The Economic Efficiency of Vehicle Operation in Terms of the Financial Security of Enterprises
Background: A measurable feature of the efficiency of vehicle use in transportation companies is the revenue from transport orders, which has a significant impact on their profitability. Therefore, it is important to skillfully analyze the parameters related to the operation of vehicles and their impact on the bottom line. Transportation companies, when managing their operations, take steps to reduce operating costs. The above makes a large number of studies available in the literature on the analysis of vehicle damage or wear of system components, as well as ways to predict them. However, there is a lack of studies treating the impact of the parameters of specific orders on economic efficiency, which is a research niche undertaken in the following study. Methods: The purpose of this article was to analyze the economic efficiency of vehicle operation in terms of the financial security of enterprises. The main research problem was formulated in the form of the question of how the various parameters of a transport order affect its profitability. During our study, critical analysis of the literature, mathematical modeling and inference were used. A detailed analysis of transport orders executed by SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises), which are characterized by a fleet of light commercial vehicles with a capacity of up to 3.5 t, was carried out in the FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Good) industry in Poland in 2021–2022. Due to the binary variable form, a logistic regression model was elaborated. The estimated parameters of the model and the calculated odds ratios made it possible to assess the influence of the selected factors on the profitability of orders. Results: Among other things, it was shown that in the case of daily vehicle mileage, the odds quotient indicates that with each additional kilometer driven, the probability of profitability of an order increases by 1%. Taking into account the speed of travel, it is estimated that with an increase in its value by 1 km/h, the probability of profitability of an order decreases by 3%. On the other hand, an increase in cargo weight by 1 kg makes the probability of a profitable order increase by 9%. Conclusion: Through this study, the limited availability of low-cost analytical tools that can be applied during transportation fleet management in SME companies was confirmed, as was the use of simple and non-expansive mathematical models. At the same time, they are not “black boxes” and therefore enable drawing and implementing model conclusions into operations. The results obtained can help shape the overall strategy of companies in the area of vehicle operation and can support the decision-making process related to the management of subsequent orders, indicating those that will bring the highest profit. The above is very important for SME companies, which often operate on the verge of profitability.
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