Feasibility of zero emission freight zones: scenario analysis and risk assessment

To further incentivize the adoption of zero-emission trucks (ZETs), Chinese cities would need more proactive policies like zero-emission freight zones (ZEFZs). However, the design of the policy should avoid the disruption of goods supply, increase of logistic costs, and ensure inclusive transition of small carriers and financial sustainability for city governments. To this end, this study employs Beijing as a case: Based on ZEFZ case studies, policy document and literature review, and data analysis of freight demand distribution and truck movements in Beijing, this study constructs four scenarios with different spatial coverages, restricted truck segments, and roll-out years of ZEFZs. The impacts of different ZEFZ scenarios on emissions reduction potentials, goods supply and vehicle fleet replacement, and public and private expenditure are evaluated. The most cost-efficient and easy-to-implement scenario is recommended as the initial phase of the ZEFZ scheme, with risk assessment and risk mitigation measures.