Assessing population size and survival rate of Pelophylax bedriagae caralitanus, in a well-protected Nature Park in Türkiye

: Estimating population trends provides valuable information for conservation biologists. Although there are many methods for estimating demographic rates, capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods are known to be the most realistic method that can provide detailed data on individuals and populations, including the achievement of conservation goals. This study focused on determining the population trend of Pelophylax bedriagae caralitanus, Beyşehir frog using the CMR method in a protected area during the 2011–2019 breeding seasons. Our CMR data led to the selection of model-considering constant survival rates, capture/recapture probabilities, and year-specific immigration/emigration patterns [ Φ(··) y’(t) y’’(t) p(··) = c(··) N(t) ]-as the most fitting biological hypothesis among 22 constructed models. According to the best-fitted model, 6% of all individuals in Gölcük population can be captured during each sampling occasion. The annual survival rates show low variation between years, and the mean survival rate was estimated as 0.85, that means 85% of the individuals of Pelophylax bedriagae caralitanus in the Gölcük population were able to live on to subsequent breeding seasons. The average population size of Gölcük population for nine consecutive years was estimated as 5094 (range 4834–5382) individuals that shows minor and acceptable levels of population size fluctuations, and slightly increasing over the years. These findings can guide future research, aiding in assessing population size changes in both protected and nonprotected areas while understanding population decline trends.