A study on the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of water resource–ecology–social economy composite system resilience in the Huaihe River Basin

Water resources are important supporting elements in the ecological environment and socio-economic system of sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the comprehensive resilience level of the water resources–ecology–socioeconomic system against external disturbances in the Anhui and Shandong sections of the Huaihe River Basin. The comprehensive index system is constructed with the characteristic dimensions of resistance, resilience, and adaptability. Use the game theory combination weighting-VIKOR method to quantify the resilience level, and use the kernel density analysis and Markov chain to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and transition probability. The results show that (1) the resilience index of the composite system in the Huaihe River Basin shows an increasing trend, and the resilience level of the Anhui section is generally higher than that of the Shandong section. (2) The resilience level gradually evolved into the spatial distribution characteristics of high in the west and low in the east, high in the south and low in the north during the study period. (3) The resilience grade has strong robustness, and the probability of transferring to the higher grade is greater than that of transferring to the lower grade.