{"title":"堕胎观点与党派选择:解读因果关系","authors":"Robert S Erikson","doi":"10.1093/psquar/qqae041","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Starting in the 1980s, U.S. voters began dividing on the abortion issue into pro-life Republicans and pro-choice Democrats. This study shows that the predominant direction of causality was that abortion opinion caused changes in partisanship rather than the reverse, which then had downstream consequences for vote choice. Working with the Youth Parent Socialization Panel Study, I show that those taking pro-choice and pro-life positions in 1982 subsequently changed their party identification to align with those views. By contrast, Democrats and Republicans, as of 1982, did not realign their abortion positions. The partisan conversions were concentrated among ideologically engaged (IE) respondents, especially IE women, who found themselves out of step with their party on abortion. By triggering changes in party identification, panelists’ abortion stances as early as 1982 influenced their vote choices downstream in the 1996 presidential election. Thus, issue-based realignment is viewed here in real time with data from a panel study.","PeriodicalId":51491,"journal":{"name":"Political Science Quarterly","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Abortion Opinion and Partisan Choice: Untangling the Causal Dynamics\",\"authors\":\"Robert S Erikson\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/psquar/qqae041\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n Starting in the 1980s, U.S. voters began dividing on the abortion issue into pro-life Republicans and pro-choice Democrats. This study shows that the predominant direction of causality was that abortion opinion caused changes in partisanship rather than the reverse, which then had downstream consequences for vote choice. Working with the Youth Parent Socialization Panel Study, I show that those taking pro-choice and pro-life positions in 1982 subsequently changed their party identification to align with those views. By contrast, Democrats and Republicans, as of 1982, did not realign their abortion positions. The partisan conversions were concentrated among ideologically engaged (IE) respondents, especially IE women, who found themselves out of step with their party on abortion. By triggering changes in party identification, panelists’ abortion stances as early as 1982 influenced their vote choices downstream in the 1996 presidential election. Thus, issue-based realignment is viewed here in real time with data from a panel study.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51491,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Political Science Quarterly\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Political Science Quarterly\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/psquar/qqae041\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"POLITICAL SCIENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Political Science Quarterly","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/psquar/qqae041","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Abortion Opinion and Partisan Choice: Untangling the Causal Dynamics
Starting in the 1980s, U.S. voters began dividing on the abortion issue into pro-life Republicans and pro-choice Democrats. This study shows that the predominant direction of causality was that abortion opinion caused changes in partisanship rather than the reverse, which then had downstream consequences for vote choice. Working with the Youth Parent Socialization Panel Study, I show that those taking pro-choice and pro-life positions in 1982 subsequently changed their party identification to align with those views. By contrast, Democrats and Republicans, as of 1982, did not realign their abortion positions. The partisan conversions were concentrated among ideologically engaged (IE) respondents, especially IE women, who found themselves out of step with their party on abortion. By triggering changes in party identification, panelists’ abortion stances as early as 1982 influenced their vote choices downstream in the 1996 presidential election. Thus, issue-based realignment is viewed here in real time with data from a panel study.
期刊介绍:
Published continuously since 1886, Political Science Quarterly or PSQ is the most widely read and accessible scholarly journal covering government, politics and policy. A nonpartisan journal, PSQ is edited for both political scientists and general readers with a keen interest in public and foreign affairs. Each article is based on objective evidence and is fully refereed.