休闲大麻市场对青少年和成年人使用大麻的影响:合成对照分析

Samantha Marinello
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摘要

目的:评估娱乐性大麻市场对美国五个州青少年和成年人使用大麻的长期影响。方法: 利用国家药物使用和毒品调查的州级数据:本研究利用国家药物使用和健康调查(National Survey on Drug Use and Health)中的州级数据,采用一种名为 "合成控制法"(synthetic control method)的新颖因果推断方法,通过交错治疗来估算娱乐市场对科罗拉多州、华盛顿州、俄勒冈州、阿拉斯加州和内华达州的流行率和开始使用率的综合影响。针对 12-17 岁、18-25 岁和 26 岁及以上人群分别使用了三个模型。治疗前的州级特征和大麻使用趋势用于生成合成对照权重。置信区间的构建采用了 "一撇一捺 "的千分法。结果:合成对照州和治疗州在社会人口特征、其他药物使用流行率以及娱乐市场实施前的大麻使用趋势方面相似。研究结果显示,在药房开始运营 2-4 年后,12-17 岁青少年的流行率和开始使用率略有上升(分别为 11% 和 13%),18-25 岁年轻成年人(分别为 17% 和 33%)和 26 岁及以上老年人(分别为 33% 和 82%)的流行率和开始使用率大幅上升。结论:这项研究的结果表明,娱乐性大麻市场增加了青少年和成年人使用大麻的流行率和起始率。根据使用频率和使用者特征等因素,这些增加可能会导致不良的健康后果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Recreational Cannabis Markets on Cannabis Use Among Adolescents and Adults: A Synthetic Control Analysis
Objective: To assess the longer-term impacts of recreational cannabis markets on cannabis use among adolescents and adults across five U.S. states. Method: Drawing on state-level data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, this study uses a novel method of causal inference called the synthetic control method with staggered treatment adoption to estimate the pooled effect of recreational markets on prevalence and initiation of use in Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, and Nevada. Three separate models were used for those 12-17, 18-25, and 26 and older. Pre-treatment state-level characteristics and trends in cannabis use were used to generate synthetic control weights. Confidence intervals were constructed using a leave-one-out jackknifing method. Results: Synthetic controls and treated states were similar in terms of sociodemographic characteristics, prevalence of other drug use, and trends in cannabis use prior to the implementation of recreational markets. The study results revealed moderate increases in prevalence and initiation of use among adolescents aged 12-17 (11% and 13%, respectively), and large increases in prevalence and initiation of use among young adults aged 18-25 (17% and 33%, respectively) and older adults aged 26 and older (33% and 82%, respectively) 2-4 years after dispensaries became operational. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest recreational cannabis markets have increased prevalence and initiation of cannabis use among adolescents and adults. These increases may lead to adverse health outcomes depending on factors such as frequency of use and characteristics of users.
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