将每日海洋温度归因于人为气候变化

Joseph Giguere, D. Gilford, Andrew Pershing
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球海洋温度正在上升,并将在 2023 年达到创纪录的水平。虽然趋势很明显,而且很可能与人类造成的气候变化密切相关,但海洋在日常水平上也表现出可变性,从而导致局部极端现象,如海洋热浪。我们提出了一个业务系统,用于估算人类造成的气候变化对海洋中任何地方每日海面温度的影响。该系统采用多种方法,将观测趋势与 CMIP6 的成对控制/强迫气候模式运行相结合。我们的方法新颖灵活,易于在全球范围内应用,可用于自卫星时代(1982--2023 年)开始以来的任何一天。该系统可为进一步研究可归因的海洋温度和可归因的持续事件的实时通信进行快速评估。我们将该系统应用于过去十年在塔斯曼海、缅因湾和地中海发生的有据可查的热浪,以及 2023 年 7 月的全球状况,以确认该系统产生的估计值与其他归因方法一致,并模拟我们的系统如何处理正在发生的有趣事件。这些事件中的每一个都强烈反映了气候变化的影响:在人类影响的气候条件下,这些事件发生的可能性至少是在没有气候变化的情况下的四倍。同时,在 2023 年 7 月,几乎所有(大于 70%)海洋温度在任何一天出现的可能性都至少增加了一倍。每日海洋温度的快速归因为量化气候变化对珊瑚漂白等生态影响和热带气旋等海洋生成/影响风暴的影响提供了途径。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Attributing daily ocean temperatures to anthropogenic climate change
Ocean temperatures around the world are rising and hit record levels around the world in 2023. While trends are clear and likely strongly connected to human-caused climate change, the oceans also exhibit variability on the daily level, leading to local extremes such as marine heatwaves. We present an operational system to estimate the impact of human-caused climate change on daily sea surface temperatures anywhere in the ocean. This system uses a multi-method approach combining observed trends and paired control/forced climate model runs from CMIP6. Our approach is novel in its flexibility and ease of application for global, daily use for any day since the beginning of the satellite era (1982--2023). The system allows for rapid evaluation for further study of attributable ocean temperatures and real-time communications of attributable ongoing events. We apply the system to well-documented heatwaves in the Tasman Sea, Gulf of Maine, and Mediterranean Sea over the past decade, as well as global conditions in July 2023, to confirm that the system produces estimates consistent with other attribution methods, and to simulate how our system handles interesting events as they are occurring. Each of these events strongly reflected impacts of climate change: their temperatures were consistently made at least four times as likely to occur in our human-influenced climate than in a world without climate change. Meanwhile, in July 2023, almost all (>70%) of the ocean's temperatures were made at least twice as likely to occur on any given day. Rapid attribution of daily ocean temperatures provides a pathway for quantifying the influence of climate change on ecological impacts like coral bleaching and on ocean-generated/influenced storms like tropical cyclones.
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