Welfare at the Statehouse Democracies: Assessing the Impact of Public Opinion on Welfare Policies at the State Level

A frequent question in discussions about democracy is whether input from the public is ever considered and to what extent by politicians. This influence of public opinion on the realm of welfare policies has not been extensively explored, and most analyses are less precise for being conducted before the passage of the national welfare reform in 1996, better known as the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA). Bringing the analysis to a period after the reform to account for contextual changes since its passage, this study uses the multilevel and poststratification (MRP) model considered superior in analysis of subnational opinion using national survey data to assess the influence of public opinion on welfare policies at the state level. Collecting data from the 2014 CCES and a new developed welfare generosity index, I find that public opinion does not have any influence on how generous welfare programs turn out in their states, unless it is interacted with state government ideology. It seems that the ideology of the state government and the state poverty rate are the major determinants on welfare policies outcomes in the states, although the latter had different effects for TANF and SNAP.