基于复杂网络的中国商品期货市场投资组合优化

Ke Huang, LiFei Ke, Zuo-Ming Zhang, Qiumei Li, Jifeng Sun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

构建中国商品期货市场网络。商品是网络的节点,网络联系由价格相关矩阵定义。分析各商品在商品期货市场网络中的中心度与商品组合最优权重之间的关系,实证检验影响商品中心度的市场系统因素和商品个性化因素,评价均值-方差框架下网络结构对商品组合优化选择的影响。研究发现,网络中心度高的商品往往与工业产品相关,波动性大。中心性越高的商品,其投资组合权重越低。我们提出了一种基于网络的商品期货投资策略,根据网络中心度对商品进行分组,网络中心度较低的边缘商品结构组合,累计收益率优于中心度较高的核心产品组合,全市场组合收益率较高,但由于最大回撤较大,导致稳定性和抗风险能力不及另外两组商品组合。本文的主要贡献在于以商品期货市场网络为工具,通过建立组合权重与商品中心度之间的关系来优化组合选择。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Optimization of investment portfolios of Chinese commodity futures market based on complex networks
China commodity futures market network is constructed. Commodity is the node of the network, and the network link is defined by the price correlation matrix. We analyze the relationship between the centrality of each commodity in the commodity futures market network and the optimal weight of the commodity portfolio, empirically examine the market system factors and commodity personalized factors that affect the centrality of commodity, and evaluate the effect of network structure on the optimization of commodity portfolio selection under the mean-variance framework. It is found that the commodities with high network centrality are often related to industrial products and have high volatility. Commodities with higher centrality have lower portfolio weights. We put forward a kind of commodity futures investment strategy based on network, according to the network centricity grouping the commodities, the network centricity lower edge of the commodity structure of the portfolio, cumulative yield is better than that of centricity higher core product portfolio, the whole market portfolio yield, but due to large maximum retracement, lead to the stability and ability to resist risk compared with the other two groups of goods combination. The main contribution of this paper is to optimize portfolio selection by establishing the relationship between portfolio weight and commodity centrality by using commodity futures market network as a tool.
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