波动性预测和不对称效应:道琼斯可持续发展指数的证据

Subrata Roy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在探讨道琼斯可持续发展指数(DJSI)在 1998 年至 2020 年期间的各种非对称效应。本研究将研究期间分为三个子期间(衰退前、衰退期和衰退后)。研究采用 ARCH 和 GARCH 方法来观察波动率的性质及其对每日回报的影响。研究报告显示,在所有子时期的每日回报率中都存在明显的非对称冲击和条件波动率的持续性。此外,除 DJSI 美国指数外,其他子期间的回报率都存在杠杆效应。研究还发现,EGARCH 和 TARCH 测量方法适用于经济衰退前和衰退期,但 GARCH 在衰退后更有优势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Volatility Forecasting and Asymmetry Effect: Evidence from Dow Jones Sustainability Indices
The present study seeks to examine the varied asymmetric effects of Dow Jones Sustainability indices (DJSI) over a period from 1998 to 2020. Here, the study period is divided into three sub-periods (pre-recession, recession, and post-recession). The study applies ARCH and GARCH approaches to observe the nature of volatilities and their effect on their daily return. The study reports presence of significant asymmetric shocks and persistence of conditional volatilities in the daily returns during all the sub-periods. Moreover, leverage effects exist in the returns during the sub-periods except DJSI US. It is also observed that EGARCH and TARCH measures are appropriate in pre-recession and recession periods, but GARCH is gainful in post-recession.
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