肯尼亚北裂谷地区商业银行的金融危机与经济衰退

Benard Agwata Onchwari, Julius Miroga
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:本研究的总体目标是探讨肯尼亚北裂谷地区商业银行的金融危机和经济衰退问题。研究特别寻求确定利率危机、货币危机、公司债务危机和流动性危机对肯尼亚北裂谷地区商业银行经济衰退的影响。研究以信贷紧缩理论、债务悬置理论、流动性偏好理论和信贷周期理论为基础。研究方法:采用描述性调查设计。研究对象包括肯尼亚北大裂谷地区的所有 44 家商业银行,每家商业银行的分行经理也是研究对象,他们对金融危机及其如何影响各自银行的经济衰退做出了清晰的概述。在选择 44 名分行经理时采用了有目的的抽样方法。原始数据是通过一份经过可靠性和有效性预先测试的调查问卷收集的。研究还使用描述性和推论性统计方法对数据进行了分析。描述性统计包括百分比、频率、平均值和标准差。线性回归分析和相关分析作为推断统计用于显示变量之间存在的关系。然后用表格展示了研究结果。研究结果研究结果表明,利率危机对商业银行的经济衰退有显著的负面影响(p = 0.027,<0.05)。研究结果还表明,货币危机对商业银行的经济衰退有显著的负面影响(p = 0.033,<0.05)。公司债务危机对商业银行的经济衰退有显著的负面影响(p = 0.015,<0.05)。流动性危机对商业银行的经济衰退有明显的负面影响,回归模型也表明 p = 0.002,<0.05。研究得出结论,利率危机、货币危机、公司债务危机和流动性危机对商业银行的经济衰退有负面影响。对理论、实践和政策的独特贡献:研究建议商业银行开发具有灵活利率的产品,以满足高利率时期借款人的需求。管理层应考虑提供有期限的固定利率贷款,为企业提供一定的稳定性。肯尼亚中央银行等政策制定者应采取措施稳定本国货币,并在危机期间促进外国投资。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Financial Crises and Economic Downturns of Commercial Banks in North Rift Region, Kenya
Purpose: General objective of the study was to explore the financial crises and economic downturn of commercial banks in North Rift Region in Kenya. The study specifically sought to establish the effects of interest rates crisis, currency crisis, corporate debt crisis and liquidity crisis on economic downturns of commercial banks in North Rift Region in Kenya. The study was anchored on Credit Crunch Theory, the Debt Overhang Theory, the Liquidity Preference Theory and the Credit cycle Theory. Methodology: A descriptive survey design was adopted. The study population consisted of all the 44 commercial banks in the North rift region in Kenya and in each commercial bank, branch managers were also targeted who gave a clear overview of financial crises and how it affected the economic downturns of their respective banks. Purposive sampling was employed to select the 44 branch managers. The primary data was collected by using a questionnaire that was pretested for reliability and validity. The study also analyzed the data using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics including percentages, frequencies, means and standard deviations were adopted in analyzing the data. Linear Regression analysis and correlation analysis as the inferential statistics were used to show the relationship that existed between the variables. The findings were then presented using tables. Findings: The study findings indicated that interest rates crisis had a significant negative effect on the economic downturns of commercial banks (p = 0.027, <0.05). The findings also indicated that currency crisis had a significant negative effect on the economic downturns of commercial banks with p = 0.033, <0.05. corporate debt crisis had a significant negative effect on the economic downturns of commercial banks (p = 0.015, <0.05). Liquidity crisis had a significant negative effect on economic downturns of commercial banks where the regression model also indicated that p = 0.002, <0.05. The study concluded that interest rates crisis, currency crisis, corporate debt crisis and liquidity crisis had a negative effect on the economic downturns of commercial banks. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommends that the commercial banks should develop products with flexible interest rates to cater to borrowers during periods of high interest rates. The management should consider offering fixed-rate loans for a limited term to provide some stability to businesses. The policy makers such as the Central Bank of Kenya should implement measures to stabilize the national currency and promote foreign investment during crises.
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