研究运行可靠性和剩余使用寿命的贝叶斯网络方法

IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
Debasis Jana, Deepak Kumar, Suprakash Gupta, Sukomal Pal, Sandip Ghosh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

可靠性研究在支持采矿业和建筑业等动态和恶劣环境下工作的任何机械的运行方面发挥着重要作用。这种质量本身是不确定的,是任何系统的随机变量。本研究重点关注运行条件(OCs)对机械运行可靠性和剩余使用寿命(RUL)的影响。研究采用了一种名为贝叶斯网络(BN)的概率图形方法来研究 OCs 对系统性能的影响。通过分析重型采矿机械中运行的电机的运行可靠性并预测其剩余使用寿命,证明了所开发的方法。根据电机系统的历史数据估算出的故障概率是故障可能性,而 OC 是所开发 BN 模型中的证据。据观察,电机的性能和 RUL 受 OCs 和维护的影响很大。我们提出了电机系统需要维护或更换的可靠性临界值,以指导管理层进行决策。这项研究将有助于设计适当的维护计划,减少非计划停机时间,降低电机的维护成本,尤其是在动态和恶劣环境下运行的电机。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Bayesian Network Approach for Studying the Operational Reliability and Remaining Useful Life
Reliability study plays a significant role in supporting the operation of any machinery working in a dynamic and harsh environment such as mining, and construction industries. This quality is inherently uncertain and a stochastic variable of any system. This study focused on the effects of operating conditions (OCs) on the operational reliability and remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery. A probabilistic graphical method called Bayesian Network (BN) was used to study the effect of OCs on the system performance. The developed methodology has been demonstrated by analyzing the operational reliability and predicting the RUL of electrical motors operated in heavy mining machinery. The failure probabilities estimated from the historical data of the motor system are failure likelihood, and OCs are the evidence in the developed BN model. It has been observed that the performance and RUL of the motor are significantly influenced by OCs and maintenance. A threshold value of reliability at which the motor system requires maintenance or replacement has been proposed to guide management in decision-making. This study will be beneficial for designing an appropriate maintenance schedule, reducing unplanned production downtime, and reducing the maintenance cost of electrical motors operated particularly in dynamic and harsh environmental industries.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
12.50%
发文量
24
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