{"title":"国际资本流动骤停对经济增长的异质性影响","authors":"Xiaoyun Fan, Wei Wang, Zitong Xu, Haoxi Yang","doi":"10.1111/roie.12759","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically examines the heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops in international capital flows on economic growth. We identified 24 sudden stop episodes since 1990 and employed a counterfactual method with cross‐economy panel data to evaluate the impact of each episode on economic growth. The results indicate that 14 sudden stop episodes triggered significant economic decline, with varying magnitudes; 9 episodes were accompanied by insignificant economic downturn, and 1 episode was followed by economic growth. We further utilize the treatment effect derived from the counterfactual analysis to investigate the causes of these heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops on economic growth. Results obtained from the panel data model suggest that external debt, financial development, and real investment return are the main driving forces contributing to the observed heterogeneity.","PeriodicalId":47712,"journal":{"name":"Review of International Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops of international capital flows on economic growth\",\"authors\":\"Xiaoyun Fan, Wei Wang, Zitong Xu, Haoxi Yang\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/roie.12759\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper empirically examines the heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops in international capital flows on economic growth. We identified 24 sudden stop episodes since 1990 and employed a counterfactual method with cross‐economy panel data to evaluate the impact of each episode on economic growth. The results indicate that 14 sudden stop episodes triggered significant economic decline, with varying magnitudes; 9 episodes were accompanied by insignificant economic downturn, and 1 episode was followed by economic growth. We further utilize the treatment effect derived from the counterfactual analysis to investigate the causes of these heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops on economic growth. Results obtained from the panel data model suggest that external debt, financial development, and real investment return are the main driving forces contributing to the observed heterogeneity.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47712,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Review of International Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Review of International Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12759\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Review of International Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12759","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops of international capital flows on economic growth
This paper empirically examines the heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops in international capital flows on economic growth. We identified 24 sudden stop episodes since 1990 and employed a counterfactual method with cross‐economy panel data to evaluate the impact of each episode on economic growth. The results indicate that 14 sudden stop episodes triggered significant economic decline, with varying magnitudes; 9 episodes were accompanied by insignificant economic downturn, and 1 episode was followed by economic growth. We further utilize the treatment effect derived from the counterfactual analysis to investigate the causes of these heterogeneous impacts of sudden stops on economic growth. Results obtained from the panel data model suggest that external debt, financial development, and real investment return are the main driving forces contributing to the observed heterogeneity.
期刊介绍:
The Review of International Economics is devoted to the publication of high-quality articles on a full range of topics in international economics. The Review comprises controversial and innovative thought and detailed contributions from other directly related fields such as economic development; trade and the environment; and political economy. Whether theoretical, empirical or policy-oriented, its relevance to real world problems is of paramount concern.