南苏门答腊地区先驱列车公私合作计划案例研究

Delli Noviarti Rachman, J. Arliansyah, E. Kadarsa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

印尼的先驱列车由政府全额出资。建设需要大量资金,这将加重国家预算的负担。公私合作计划是替代方案之一。本研究旨在分析 Indralaya-Tanjung Senai 火车融资和维护的最有效分拆方案。生命周期成本并根据适用法规进行敏感性分析。这些方案基于票价上涨和政府对这条先驱列车线路运营和维护(O&M)的支持,计算出净现值(NPV)和内部收益率(IRR)值。方案 1 假设车票没有补贴;私营公司负责运营和维护费用。方案 2 假设票价由私营公司确定;政府负责采购和维护成本。方案 3 假设政府为每位乘客提供 10,000 印度卢比的补贴,并提供铁路基础设施;私营公司承担铁路客车的采购成本和运营费用。根据计算,方案 1 的净现值为 7.3 亿印尼盾,方案 2 为 46.4 亿印尼盾,方案 3 为(-)13.4 亿印尼盾。分析表明,根据物价上涨和通货膨胀率提高乘客票价以及政府对维护费用的补贴将使该铁路项目在财务上可行。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Public-private partnerships scheme of pioneer train case study in South Sumatera area
Pioneer trains in Indonesia have been fully funded by the government. The construction needs a lot of funding that would burden the state budget. One of the alternatives is the public-private partnership scheme. This study aims to analyze the most effective unbundling scenario for financing and maintaining the Indralaya-Tanjung Senai train. The life cycle costs and conducting sensitivity analysis according to applicable regulations. The scenarios are based on ticket price increases and government support for the operation and maintenance (O&M) for this pioneer train route, calculated net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) value. Scenario 1 assumes that tickets do not receive subsidies; private companies are responsible for O&M costs. Scenario 2 assumes that ticket prices are set by private companies; the government is responsible for procurement and maintenance costs. Scenario 3 assumes that the government provides subsidies of IDR 10,000 per passenger as well as railway infrastructure; private companies bear the cost of procuring railbuses and operational expenses. Based on calculations with Scenario 1 NPV is IDR 0.73 billion; with Scenario 2 is IDR 4.64 billion and with Scenario 3 is IDR (–)1.34 billion. The analysis shows that increasing passenger fares according to price raises and inflation rates, and subsidies from governments for maintenance costs will make this railroad project financially feasible.
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