马来西亚半岛的绿色氢气前景:通过蒙特卡罗模拟进行的技术经济分析

Mohammad Nurizat Rahman, Mazlan Abdul Wahid
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摘要

根据马来西亚国家能源转型路线图,氢是该国能源转型的重要组成部分。然而,针对马来西亚半岛各州的氢能研究却很少,这限制了对绿色制氢的讨论。本研究采用蒙特卡洛模型来评估影响马来西亚半岛绿色制氢成功的经济和技术因素。研究重点关注三个目标年份:2023 年、2030 年和 2050 年,分别代表技术发展和市场应用的不同阶段。2023 年,1 兆瓦质子交换膜(PEM)电解槽系统的氢气平准化成本(LCOH)从每公斤 5.39 美元到 10.97 美元不等,凸显了早期阶段的挑战和不确定性。到 2030 年,6 兆瓦 PEM 电解槽系统的 LCOH 可达到每千克 3.50 美元到 4.72 美元,显示出更好的前景。由于技术进步和成本降低,2050 年,20 兆瓦 PEM 电解槽系统的 LCOH 可达到每公斤 3.12 美元至 3.64 美元。研究结果表明,由于有利的地理条件,马来西亚半岛北部地区的 LCOH 值一直较低。由于太阳能发电能力系数的微小变化,LCOH 的不确定性分布在不同地区保持稳定。一些州可能会面临更多的不确定性,这强调了需要额外的政策支持机制来降低与绿色氢能投资相关的风险。敏感性分析表明,主要成本驱动因素正在发生变化,早期电解槽投资在 2023 年占据主导地位,而电价在 2030 年和 2050 年变得更加重要。未来的研究可侧重于为绿色制氢产业不发达的地区优化绿色制氢系统。本研究强调了考虑当地条件的定制战略的重要性,并突出了马来西亚半岛在能源转型中的作用,从而为有关绿色制氢的知情讨论做出了贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Green hydrogen prospects in Peninsular Malaysia: a techno-economic analysis via Monte Carlo simulations
According to Malaysia's National Energy Transition Roadmap, hydrogen is a critical component of the country's energy transition. However, there is a scarcity of hydrogen studies for Peninsular Malaysian states, which limits discussions on green hydrogen production. This study employs a Monte Carlo model to assess the economic and technical factors influencing the success of green hydrogen in Peninsular Malaysia. The study focuses on three target years: 2023, 2030, and 2050, representing various stages of technological development and market adoption. The levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of a 1-MW Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolyzer system ranges from $5.39 to $10.97 per kg in 2023, highlighting early-stage challenges and uncertainties. A 6-MW PEM electrolyzer system could achieve an LCOH of $3.50 to $4.72 per kg by 2030, indicating better prospects. Because of technological advancements and cost reductions, a 20-MW PEM electrolyzer system could achieve an LCOH of $3.12 to $3.64 per kg in 2050. The findings indicate that the northern regions of Peninsular Malaysia have consistently low LCOH values due to favorable geographical conditions. Due to minor variations in solar capacity factors, uncertainty distributions in LCOH remain stable across different regions. Some states may face increased uncertainty, emphasizing the need for additional policy support mechanisms to mitigate risks associated with green hydrogen investments. The sensitivity analysis shows that key cost drivers are shifting, with early-stage electrolyzer investments dominating in 2023 and electricity prices becoming more important in 2030 and 2050. Future research could focus on optimizing green hydrogen systems for areas with underdeveloped green hydrogen industries. This study contributes to informed discussions about green hydrogen production by emphasizing the importance of tailored strategies that consider local conditions and highlighting the role of Peninsular Malaysia in the energy transition.
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