气候变化对西班牙阿尔梅里亚省雨养大麦生产的影响和适应战略

Atmosphere Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI:10.3390/atmos15050606
Francesco Saretto, Bishwajit Roy, Ricardo Encarnação Coelho, Alfredo Reder, Giusy Fedele, Robert Oakes, Luigia Brandimarte, Tiago Capela Lourenço
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引用次数: 0

摘要

地中海缺水地区面临着气温升高和干旱日益严重的严峻挑战。我们利用联合国粮农组织 AquaCrop 模型评估了气候变化对西班牙阿尔梅里亚干旱省份雨养大麦生产的影响。我们重点关注本世纪中期(2041-2070 年)和本世纪末(2071-2100 年)的雨浇大麦生长情况,采用了三种基于共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 的情景:SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5。利用配对 t 检验、斯皮尔曼和皮尔森相关系数、均方根误差和相对均方根误差,我们验证了 AquaCrop 使用标准大麦作物参数捕捉当地多年趋势(9 年或 9 年以上)的能力,而无需在当地重新校准。从参考初始土壤含水量(ISWC)开始,对大麦根系深度内的不同土壤含水量进行建模,以考虑土壤水分供应的减少。然后,我们评估了不同气候适应策略的效率:灌溉、覆盖和改变播种日期。结果显示,大麦的平均产量变化为+14%至-44.8%(本世纪中期)和+12%至-55.1%(本世纪末),其中ISWC是决定产量的主要因素。灌溉仅利用了阿尔梅里亚 3% 的地表水资源,却使产量提高了 21.1%。覆盖物可提高灌溉产量 6.9%,同时减少 40% 的灌溉需求。改变播种日期并不能持续提高产量。我们的研究表明,无论采用哪种方案,阿尔梅里亚大麦生产对气候的适应都应优先考虑通过结合灌溉和覆盖物来限制土壤水分流失。这将使阿尔梅里亚北部社区的农民能够维持生计,减少该省对园艺的依赖,同时继续为粮食安全目标做出贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain
Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration. Starting with a reference Initial Soil Water Content (ISWC), different soil water contents within barley rooting depth were modelled to account for decreases in soil water availability. We then evaluated the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates. We show average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century), with ISWC being the main factor determining yields. Irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources. Mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. Changing sowing dates does not consistently improve yields. We demonstrate that regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals.
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