1971-2022 年期间澳大利亚东南部准十年降水和极端气温的机器学习归因

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Climate Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI:10.3390/cli12050075
Milton Speer, Joshua Hartigan, Lance Leslie
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引用次数: 0

摘要

澳大利亚东部和东南部大部分地区(SEAUS)在 2010-2022 年的准十年间遭受了历史性的洪水、热浪和干旱,这与全球经历的情况类似。在 2010-2012 年的双重拉尼娜现象期间,澳大利亚东南部经历了创纪录的降雨总量。随后,2013 年至 2019 年期间的严重干旱、热浪和相关丛林火灾影响了东南亚和南美洲的大部分地区,2016 年冬末/春季,东南亚和南美洲内陆部分地区的降雨量创下历史新高,这与印度洋的强烈负向偶极子有关。最后,从 2020 年到 2022 年,罕见的三重拉尼娜现象在东南亚和大洋洲造成了大范围的极端降雨和洪水,造成了巨大的财产和环境损失。为了确定自 20 世纪 90 年代初以来,全球变暖(GW)加速导致 2010-2022 年期间降水和温度极端化的主要驱动因素,我们将机器学习归因方法应用于 SEAUS 具有代表性的八个站点的数据。机器学习归因检测适用于 1971-2022 年这 52 年期间以及 1971-1996 年和 1997-2022 年这连续 26 年的子期间。1997-2022 年期间的属性包括 2010-2022 年的准十年期,揭示了造成 2010-2022 年极端天气的关键因素。最后,极端降水和温度事件的一些驱动因素与全球和局地对流层环流的重大变化有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Machine Learning Attribution of Quasi-Decadal Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Southeastern Australia during the 1971–2022 Period
Much of eastern and southeastern Australia (SEAUS) suffered from historic flooding, heat waves, and drought during the quasi-decadal 2010–2022 period, similar to that experienced globally. During the double La Niña of the 2010–2012 period, SEAUS experienced record rainfall totals. Then, severe drought, heat waves, and associated bushfires from 2013 to 2019 affected most of SEAUS, briefly punctuated by record rainfall over parts of inland SEAUS in the late winter/spring of 2016, which was linked to a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole. Finally, from 2020 to 2022 a rare triple La Niña generated widespread extreme rainfall and flooding in SEAUS, resulting in massive property and environmental damage. To identify the key drivers of the 2010–2022 period’s precipitation and temperature extremes due to accelerated global warming (GW), since the early 1990s, machine learning attribution has been applied to data at eight sites that are representative of SEAUS. Machine learning attribution detection was applied to the 52-year period of 1971–2022 and to the successive 26-year sub-periods of 1971–1996 and 1997–2022. The attributes for the 1997–2022 period, which includes the quasi-decadal period of 2010–2022, revealed key contributors to the extremes of the 2010–2022 period. Finally, some drivers of extreme precipitation and temperature events are linked to significant changes in both global and local tropospheric circulation.
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来源期刊
Climate
Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
5.40%
发文量
172
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.
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