Beyond borders: exploring the impact of Italian migration control policies on Mediterranean smuggling dynamics and migrant journeys

In recent years, the Mediterranean crossings have reconfirmed their status as the most perilous routes for migrants attempting to reach European shores, with a significantly high number of deaths. In response, the Italian government has implemented various strategies aimed at reducing the number of landings and controlling irregular migration. This research evaluates the impact of these measures on the dynamics of migrant smuggling, both qualitatively and quantitatively. It examines the effectiveness of these measures and their influence on the adaptation of routes, methods, and organization of criminal groups involved in smuggling. The study emphasizes that while the measures to curb irregular immigration have had a limited direct impact on overall migratory flows and primary routes, they have indirectly influenced smugglers’ strategies. The study is grounded in empirical data sourced from interviews with expert witnesses and judicial investigations conducted by Italian prosecutors, with a comprehensive analysis of quantitative data. The findings aim to contribute to a deeper understanding of the multifaceted nature of irregular migration in the Mediterranean and the impacts of policy interventions.