崩盘期间加密货币市场的复杂网络分析

Kundan Mukhia, Anish Rai, SR Luwang, Md Nurujjaman, Sushovan Majhi, Chittaranjan Hens
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文识别了加密货币市场的崩溃,并利用复杂网络分析了其动力学。我们确定了 2017-20 年间三次不同的崩盘,并通过将时间序列划分为崩盘前、崩盘中和崩盘后三个时期来进行分析。基于部分相关性的复杂网络分析用于研究碰撞事故。从这些网络中估算出度密度($\rho_D$)、平均路径长度($\bar{l}$)和平均聚类系数($\overline{cc}$)。我们发现,$\rho_D$和$\overline{cc}$在碰撞前都是最小的,而在碰撞期间则会激增,这表明网络在碰撞期间是密集的。虽然 $\rho_D$ 和 $\overline{cc}$ 在暴跌后时期有所下降,但在 2017-18 年和 2018-19 年的暴跌中,它们仍然高于暴跌前的水平,这表明市场试图恢复正常。我们得到$\bar{l}$在股灾期间是最小的,这表明信息流是快速流动的。密集的网络和快速的信息流表明,在暴跌期间会发生无信息的同步恐慌性抛售。然而,在2019-20撞车事件中,$\rrh_D$、$\overline{cc}$和$\bar{l}$的值变化不大,表明与其他撞车事件相比,动态变化极小。本研究的结论可为投资者在市场崩溃期间做出决策提供指导。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Complex network analysis of cryptocurrency market during crashes
This paper identifies the cryptocurrency market crashes and analyses its dynamics using the complex network. We identify three distinct crashes during 2017-20, and the analysis is carried out by dividing the time series into pre-crash, crash, and post-crash periods. Partial correlation based complex network analysis is carried out to study the crashes. Degree density ($\rho_D$), average path length ($\bar{l}$), and average clustering coefficient ($\overline{cc}$) are estimated from these networks. We find that both $\rho_D$ and $\overline{cc}$ are smallest during the pre-crash period, and spike during the crash suggesting the network is dense during a crash. Although $\rho_D$ and $\overline{cc}$ decrease in the post-crash period, they remain higher than pre-crash levels for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 crashes suggesting a market attempt to return to normalcy. We get $\bar{l}$ is minimal during the crash period, suggesting a rapid flow of information. A dense network and rapid information flow suggest that during a crash uninformed synchronized panic sell-off happens. However, during the 2019-20 crash, the values of $\rho_D$, $\overline{cc}$, and $\bar{l}$ did not vary significantly, indicating minimal change in dynamics compared to other crashes. The findings of this study may guide investors in making decisions during market crashes.
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