Trends in and Correlates of Short-Acting Contraceptive Stock-Outs: Multicountry Analysis of Performance Monitoring for Action Agile Platform Data.

Understanding trends in contraceptive stock-outs, as well as their structural and demand-side correlates, is critical for policymakers and program managers to identify strategies to further anticipate, reduce, and prevent stock-outs. We analyzed trends as well as supply- and demand-side correlates of short-acting contraceptive method stock-outs by using data from multiple rounds of Performance Monitoring for Action Agile surveys. These data longitudinally measured contraceptive availability over 2 years (between November 2017 and January 2020) across 2,134 public and private service delivery points (SDPs) from urban areas of 5 countries (Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC], India, Kenya, and Nigeria). For each country, we analyzed the trends and used multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression to model the odds of short-acting contraceptive stock-outs, adjusting for key structural and demand-side factors of the SDPs. Stock-outs in short-acting contraceptive methods were common in health facilities and varied markedly, ranging from as low as 2.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.7%, 5.1%) in India to 51.0% (95% CIs=46.8%, 56.0%) in Kenya. During the observation period, stock-out rates decreased by 28% in the SDP samples in India (aOR=0.72, P<.001) and 8% in Nigeria (aOR=0.92, P<.001) but increased by 15% in DRC (aOR=1.15; P=036) and 5% in Kenya (aOR=1.05, P=003) with each round of data collection. Correlates of stock-out rates included the facility managerial authority (private versus public), whether the facility was rated high quality, whether the facility was at an advanced tier, and whether there was high demand for short-acting contraceptives. In conclusion, stock-outs of short-acting contraceptives are still common in many settings. Measuring and monitoring contraceptive stock-outs is crucial for identifying and addressing issues related to the availability and supply of short-acting contraceptives.