Who is able or unable to return to school? Exploring the short-term impact of the COVID-19 school closures on students' returning to school in Nigeria

Using data from the COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey 2020–2021, this study examines the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 school closures on students' engagement in learning activities during these closures and upon returning to school in Nigeria. First, the logistic regression analysis results revealed that students with less-educated parents, from low-income households, or from households that lost jobs were less engaged in learning activities during the school closures. For instance, students from the lowest consumption quintile were about 22 percentage points less likely to engage in learning activities compared to those from the highest quintile. Similarly, the pandemic reduced the likelihood of students returning to school, especially among girls, older, and low-income students. In addition, engagement in learning activities during school closures for COVID-19, in which affluent students were more likely to engage, increased the likelihood of students’ school attendance at the initial stage of reopening by 8 percentage points. These findings underscore the potential repercussions of the closures to exacerbate pre-existing educational inequality in Nigeria and suggest a need for policies that promote equitable access to education.