Could self-reported physical performance help predict individuals at the highest risk of mortality and hospital admission events in clinical practice? Findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

Aim: To consider how self-reported physical function measures relate to adverse clinical outcomes measured over 20 years of follow-up in a community-dwelling cohort (aged 59-73 at baseline) as compared with hand grip strength, a well-validated predictor of adverse events.

Background: Recent evidence has emphasized the significant association of physical activity, physical performance, and muscle strength with hospital admissions in older people. However, physical performance tests require staff availability, training, specialized equipment, and space to perform them, often not feasible or realistic in the context of a busy clinical setting.

Methods: In total, 2997 men and women were analyzed. Baseline predictors were measured grip strength (Jamar dynamometer) and the following self-reported measures: physical activity (Dallosso questionnaire); physical function score (SF-36 Health Survey); and walking speed. Participants were followed up from baseline (1998-2004) until December 2018 using UK Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data, which report clinical outcomes using ICD-10 coding. Predictors in relation to the risk of mortality and hospital admission events were examined using Cox regression with and without adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics.

Findings: The mean age at baseline was 65.7 and 66.6 years among men and women, respectively. Over follow-up, 36% of men and 26% of women died, while 93% of men and 92% of women were admitted to hospital at least once. Physical activity, grip strength, SF-36 physical function, and walking speed were all strongly associated with adverse health outcomes in both sex- and fully adjusted analyses; poorer values for each of the predictors were related to greater risk of mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular-related) and any, neurological, cardiovascular, respiratory, any fracture, and falls admissions. SF-36 physical function and grip strength were similarly associated with the adverse health outcomes considered.