我的应用程序可不是这么说的:对天气应用程序准确性、一致性和信任度的看法

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Cole Vaughn, Kathleen Sherman-Morris, Michael Brown, Barrett Gutter
{"title":"我的应用程序可不是这么说的:对天气应用程序准确性、一致性和信任度的看法","authors":"Cole Vaughn,&nbsp;Kathleen Sherman-Morris,&nbsp;Michael Brown,&nbsp;Barrett Gutter","doi":"10.1002/met.2205","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The usage of weather apps for forecast information has increased dramatically over the last 10–15 years. Ensuring that consumers value and trust weather apps is important to the integrity of weather forecasting. Public perception of weather app forecast accuracy and consistency undergirds the apps' value and trustworthiness. With app forecasts being interpreted solely by the app user, misunderstanding and consequent false expectations could jeopardize the public's perception of accuracy and consistency. Furthermore, weather apps often offer excessively—and potentially unrealistically—detailed forecasts on time and spatial scales, extending far into the future without sufficient disclaimers regarding the confidence level associated with such detailed forecasts. A survey of the public found perceived app accuracy and consistency to be positively correlated with the trust in an app. Participants indicated that they take at least modest consideration of uncertainty and spatial variability when assessing specific and longer range forecasts. On average, participants had low to moderate confidence in forecasts beyond 10 days, and a significant majority did not perceive a precipitation forecast as inaccurate, even when no rain occurred at their location, as long as it rained nearby. We tested for misinterpretation using a common expression of uncertainty in weather apps, namely probability of precipitation (PoP). A majority of participants made a correct interpretation of the two PoP values given, although, depending on the percentage, some misinterpreted the values as indicating precipitation intensity, totals, or duration. Overall, these findings offer encouragement for a society heavily reliant on weather apps while also encouraging more research on weather information interpretation.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2205","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"That's not what my app says: Perceptions of accuracy, consistency, and trust in weather apps\",\"authors\":\"Cole Vaughn,&nbsp;Kathleen Sherman-Morris,&nbsp;Michael Brown,&nbsp;Barrett Gutter\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/met.2205\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The usage of weather apps for forecast information has increased dramatically over the last 10–15 years. Ensuring that consumers value and trust weather apps is important to the integrity of weather forecasting. Public perception of weather app forecast accuracy and consistency undergirds the apps' value and trustworthiness. With app forecasts being interpreted solely by the app user, misunderstanding and consequent false expectations could jeopardize the public's perception of accuracy and consistency. Furthermore, weather apps often offer excessively—and potentially unrealistically—detailed forecasts on time and spatial scales, extending far into the future without sufficient disclaimers regarding the confidence level associated with such detailed forecasts. A survey of the public found perceived app accuracy and consistency to be positively correlated with the trust in an app. Participants indicated that they take at least modest consideration of uncertainty and spatial variability when assessing specific and longer range forecasts. On average, participants had low to moderate confidence in forecasts beyond 10 days, and a significant majority did not perceive a precipitation forecast as inaccurate, even when no rain occurred at their location, as long as it rained nearby. We tested for misinterpretation using a common expression of uncertainty in weather apps, namely probability of precipitation (PoP). A majority of participants made a correct interpretation of the two PoP values given, although, depending on the percentage, some misinterpreted the values as indicating precipitation intensity, totals, or duration. Overall, these findings offer encouragement for a society heavily reliant on weather apps while also encouraging more research on weather information interpretation.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49825,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Meteorological Applications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2205\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Meteorological Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.2205\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Meteorological Applications","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.2205","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去的 10-15 年间,使用天气应用程序获取预报信息的人数急剧增加。确保消费者重视和信任天气应用程序对天气预报的完整性非常重要。公众对天气应用程序预报准确性和一致性的看法是应用程序价值和可信度的基础。由于应用程序的预报完全由应用程序用户解释,误解和随之而来的错误预期可能会损害公众对准确性和一致性的看法。此外,天气应用程序经常提供时间和空间尺度上过度--可能是不切实际的--详细预报,延伸到未来很远的地方,却没有充分说明与这种详细预报相关的置信度。一项针对公众的调查发现,人们认为应用程序的准确性和一致性与对应用程序的信任度呈正相关。参与者表示,他们在评估具体和较远预报时,至少会适度考虑不确定性和空间变异性。平均而言,参与者对 10 天以上的预报有较低至中等程度的信心,而且绝大多数人认为降水预报并不准确,即使他们所在的地方没有下雨,只要附近下了雨就行。我们使用天气应用程序中常见的不确定性表达方式,即降水概率(PoP),对误读进行了测试。大多数参与者对给出的两个降水概率值做出了正确的解释,不过,根据百分比的不同,有些人将降水概率值误解为降水强度、降水总量或降水持续时间。总之,这些发现为严重依赖天气应用程序的社会提供了鼓励,同时也促进了对天气信息解读的更多研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

That's not what my app says: Perceptions of accuracy, consistency, and trust in weather apps

That's not what my app says: Perceptions of accuracy, consistency, and trust in weather apps

The usage of weather apps for forecast information has increased dramatically over the last 10–15 years. Ensuring that consumers value and trust weather apps is important to the integrity of weather forecasting. Public perception of weather app forecast accuracy and consistency undergirds the apps' value and trustworthiness. With app forecasts being interpreted solely by the app user, misunderstanding and consequent false expectations could jeopardize the public's perception of accuracy and consistency. Furthermore, weather apps often offer excessively—and potentially unrealistically—detailed forecasts on time and spatial scales, extending far into the future without sufficient disclaimers regarding the confidence level associated with such detailed forecasts. A survey of the public found perceived app accuracy and consistency to be positively correlated with the trust in an app. Participants indicated that they take at least modest consideration of uncertainty and spatial variability when assessing specific and longer range forecasts. On average, participants had low to moderate confidence in forecasts beyond 10 days, and a significant majority did not perceive a precipitation forecast as inaccurate, even when no rain occurred at their location, as long as it rained nearby. We tested for misinterpretation using a common expression of uncertainty in weather apps, namely probability of precipitation (PoP). A majority of participants made a correct interpretation of the two PoP values given, although, depending on the percentage, some misinterpreted the values as indicating precipitation intensity, totals, or duration. Overall, these findings offer encouragement for a society heavily reliant on weather apps while also encouraging more research on weather information interpretation.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Meteorological Applications
Meteorological Applications 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
62
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The aim of Meteorological Applications is to serve the needs of applied meteorologists, forecasters and users of meteorological services by publishing papers on all aspects of meteorological science, including: applications of meteorological, climatological, analytical and forecasting data, and their socio-economic benefits; forecasting, warning and service delivery techniques and methods; weather hazards, their analysis and prediction; performance, verification and value of numerical models and forecasting services; practical applications of ocean and climate models; education and training.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信