机场轻轨短期客流预测模型 HWAM-EMD-GRU

IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q4 TRANSPORTATION
Qian Qin, Ziji’an Wang, Bing Li, Ailing Huang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

准确预测机场轻轨(ALRTL)出站客流对于轻轨和机场系统的优化运营至关重要。考虑到机场轻轨出站客流的非线性、非平稳性、不确定性和周期性,我们提出了一种将霍尔特和温特斯加法模型(HWAM)、经验模式分解(EMD)和门控循环单元(GRU)整合在一起的组合预测模型。首先,EMD 的边缘效应会极大地影响预测模型的性能。为了克服这一问题,我们通过 HWAM 对客流进行了扩展。然后,可以对客流采用 EMD 这种分解方法,并提取多个内在模式函数(IMF)成分。提取所有 IMF 后,剩余部分称为残差(Res)分量。然后,对所有分量进行相关性测试,再将其汇总。最后,使用 GRU 对每个聚合分量进行预测,对聚合分量的预测需要进行重构。为了验证 HWAM-EMD-GRU 的性能,我们对北京大兴国际机场快线的每小时客流数据进行了对比研究,并将自回归综合移动平均模型、HWAM、Prophet 和 GRU 设为基线。HWAM-EMD-GRU 组合模型的预测精度高于基准模型,均方根误差为 83.52(Prophet 为 110.21),平均绝对百分比误差为 8.32%(Prophet 为 12.48%)。实验结果表明,HWAM-EMD-GRU 预测模型能提供更准确的预测。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The HWAM-EMD-GRU Forecasting Model for Short-Term Passenger Flow in an Airport Light Rail Transit Line

The HWAM-EMD-GRU Forecasting Model for Short-Term Passenger Flow in an Airport Light Rail Transit Line

Accurate forecasting of airport light rail transit line (ALRTL) outbound passenger flow is critical to the optimal operations of both light rail and airport systems. Considering the nonlinearity, non-stationarity, uncertainty, and periodicity of outbound passenger flow in the ALRTL, we propose a combined forecasting model that integrates the Holt and Winters additive model (HWAM), empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and gated recurrent unit (GRU). Firstly, the edge effect of EMD will greatly affect the performance of the forecasting model. To overcome this, we extend the passenger flow by HWAM. After that, the decomposition method, EMD, can be applied to passenger flow, and several intrinsic mode function (IMF) components can be extracted. After extracting all the IMFs, the remaining part is referred to as the residual (Res) component. Then, a correlation test is performed on all the components, followed by their aggregation. Finally, the GRU is used to predict each of the aggregated components, and the prediction of aggregated components requires reconstruction. To verify the performance of the HWAM-EMD-GRU, we conducted a comparative study on the hourly passenger flow data for Beijing Daxing International Airport Express and set the autoregressive integrated moving average model, HWAM, Prophet, and GRU as the baseline. Predictions of the HWAM-EMD-GRU combined model demonstrated higher accuracy than baseline models, with a root mean square error of 83.52 (Prophet is 110.21) and mean absolute percentage error of 8.32% (Prophet is 12.48 %). The experimental result shows that the HWAM-EMD-GRU forecasting model offers more accurate predictions.

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来源期刊
Urban Rail Transit
Urban Rail Transit Multiple-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
6.70%
发文量
20
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Urban Rail Transit is a peer-reviewed, international, interdisciplinary and open-access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand that provides a platform for scientists, researchers and engineers of urban rail transit to publish their original, significant articles on topics in urban rail transportation operation and management, design and planning, civil engineering, equipment and systems and other related topics to urban rail transit. It is to promote the academic discussions and technical exchanges among peers in the field. The journal also reports important news on the development and operating experience of urban rail transit and related government policies, laws, guidelines, and regulations. It could serve as an important reference for decision¬makers and technologists in urban rail research and construction field. Specific topics cover: Column I: Urban Rail Transportation Operation and Management • urban rail transit flow theory, operation, planning, control and management • traffic and transport safety • traffic polices and economics • urban rail management • traffic information management • urban rail scheduling • train scheduling and management • strategies of ticket price • traffic information engineering & control • intelligent transportation system (ITS) and information technology • economics, finance, business & industry • train operation, control • transport Industries • transportation engineering Column II: Urban Rail Transportation Design and Planning • urban rail planning • pedestrian studies • sustainable transport engineering • rail electrification • rail signaling and communication • Intelligent & Automated Transport System Technology ? • rolling stock design theory and structural reliability • urban rail transit electrification and automation technologies • transport Industries • transportation engineering Column III: Civil Engineering • civil engineering technologies • maintenance of rail infrastructure • transportation infrastructure systems • roads, bridges, tunnels, and underground engineering ? • subgrade and pavement maintenance and performance Column IV: Equipments and Systems • mechanical-electronic technologies • manufacturing engineering • inspection for trains and rail • vehicle-track coupling system dynamics, simulation and control • superconductivity and levitation technology • magnetic suspension and evacuated tube transport • railway technology & engineering • Railway Transport Industries • transport & vehicle engineering Column V: other topics of interest • modern tram • interdisciplinary transportation research • environmental impacts such as vibration, noise and pollution Article types: • Papers. Reports of original research work. • Design notes. Brief contributions on current design, development and application work; not normally more than 2500 words (3 journal pages), including descriptions of apparatus or techniques developed for a specific purpose, important experimental or theoretical points and novel technical solutions to commonly encountered problems. • Rapid communications. Brief, urgent announcements of significant advances or preliminary accounts of new work, not more than 3500 words (4 journal pages). The most important criteria for acceptance of a rapid communication are novel and significant. For these articles authors must state briefly, in a covering letter, exactly why their works merit rapid publication. • Review articles. These are intended to summarize accepted practice and report on recent progress in selected areas. Such articles are generally commissioned from experts in various field s by the Editorial Board, but others wishing to write a review article may submit an outline for preliminary consideration.
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