Marinaldo Loures Ferreira, Ronnie Von Dos Santos Veloso, Gildriano Soares De Oliveira, Renan Batista Queiroz, Fausto Henrique Vieira Araújo, André Medeiros De Andrade, Ricardo Siqueira Da Silva
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This work aims to elaborate the CLIMEX model to predict the climatic suitability for <i>C. canephora</i> in Brazil in the current climate and front of climate changes for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The model shows a good agreement between the density and the growth rate of the species, which indicates significant reliability of the results in the proposed model. Our modeling results show that there has been a reduction in the areas very favorable to <i>C. Canephora</i> over the years, in the North, Southeast, and the entire east coast of the Northeast regions. Compared to the current scenario, the model projection reduces by 49, 73, 82, and 88% in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100, respectively. The results may help long-term planning strategies to mitigate the economic effects of the climate change scenario on <i>C. canephora</i> production in Brazil.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Graphical Abstract</h3>\n","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools\",\"authors\":\"Marinaldo Loures Ferreira, Ronnie Von Dos Santos Veloso, Gildriano Soares De Oliveira, Renan Batista Queiroz, Fausto Henrique Vieira Araújo, André Medeiros De Andrade, Ricardo Siqueira Da Silva\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s42965-024-00350-z\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Coffee is a crucial crop for the economy of several countries. It contributes substantially to the livelihoods of millions of small producers worldwide. <i>Coffea canephora</i> represents 40% of the world's production of beans. <i>Coffea canephora</i> is a perennial crop, it is sensitive to climate, and several production areas in Brazil may become unfit for <i>C. canephora</i> cultivation due to expected climate change. Thus, knowledge of the temporal dynamics of favorable climate conditions for <i>C. canephora</i> in Brazil is necessary. This work aims to elaborate the CLIMEX model to predict the climatic suitability for <i>C. canephora</i> in Brazil in the current climate and front of climate changes for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The model shows a good agreement between the density and the growth rate of the species, which indicates significant reliability of the results in the proposed model. Our modeling results show that there has been a reduction in the areas very favorable to <i>C. Canephora</i> over the years, in the North, Southeast, and the entire east coast of the Northeast regions. Compared to the current scenario, the model projection reduces by 49, 73, 82, and 88% in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100, respectively. 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Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools
Coffee is a crucial crop for the economy of several countries. It contributes substantially to the livelihoods of millions of small producers worldwide. Coffea canephora represents 40% of the world's production of beans. Coffea canephora is a perennial crop, it is sensitive to climate, and several production areas in Brazil may become unfit for C. canephora cultivation due to expected climate change. Thus, knowledge of the temporal dynamics of favorable climate conditions for C. canephora in Brazil is necessary. This work aims to elaborate the CLIMEX model to predict the climatic suitability for C. canephora in Brazil in the current climate and front of climate changes for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The model shows a good agreement between the density and the growth rate of the species, which indicates significant reliability of the results in the proposed model. Our modeling results show that there has been a reduction in the areas very favorable to C. Canephora over the years, in the North, Southeast, and the entire east coast of the Northeast regions. Compared to the current scenario, the model projection reduces by 49, 73, 82, and 88% in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100, respectively. The results may help long-term planning strategies to mitigate the economic effects of the climate change scenario on C. canephora production in Brazil.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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