Numerical algorithm for estimating a conditioned symmetric positive definite matrix under constraints

SummaryWe present RCO (regularized Cholesky optimization): a numerical algorithm for finding a symmetric positive definite (PD) matrix with a bounded condition number that minimizes an objective function. This task arises when estimating a covariance matrix from noisy data or due to model constraints, which can cause spurious small negative eigenvalues. A special case is the problem of finding the nearest well‐conditioned PD matrix to a given matrix. RCO explicitly optimizes the entries of the Cholesky factor. This requires solving a regularized non‐linear, non‐convex optimization problem, for which we apply Newton‐CG and exploit the Hessian's sparsity. The regularization parameter is determined via numerical continuation with an accuracy‐conditioning trade‐off criterion. We apply RCO to our motivating educational measurement application of estimating the covariance matrix of an empirical best linear prediction (EBLP) of school growth scores. We present numerical results for two empirical datasets, state and urban. RCO outperforms general‐purpose near‐PD algorithms, obtaining ‐smaller matrix reconstruction bias and smaller EBLP estimator mean‐squared error. It is in fact the only algorithm that solves the right minimization problem, which strikes a balance between the objective function and the condition number. RCO can be similarly applied to the stable estimation of other posterior means. For the task of finding the nearest PD matrix, RCO yields similar condition numbers to near‐PD methods, but provides a better overall near‐null space.