{"title":"使用马尔可夫模型评估英国国家医疗服务体系糖尿病预防计划的长期成本效益。","authors":"Emma McManus","doi":"10.1007/s41669-024-00487-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In 2016, England launched the largest nationwide diabetes mellitus prevention programme, the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP). This paper seeks to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of this programme.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A Markov cohort state transition model was developed with a 35-year time horizon and yearly cycles to compare referral to the NHS DPP to usual care for individuals with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia. The modelled cohort of individuals mirrored the age profile of referrals received by the programme by April 2020. A health system perspective was taken, with costs in UK £ Sterling (price year 2020) and outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Probabilistic analysis with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations was used. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the uncertainty surrounding the base case results, particularly varying the length of time for which the effectiveness of the programme was expected to last.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In the base case, using only the observed effectiveness of the NHS DPP at 3 years, it was found that the programme is likely to dominate usual care, by generating on average 40.8 incremental QALYs whilst saving £135,755 in costs for a cohort of 1000. At a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY, 98.1% of simulations were on or under the willingness-to-pay threshold. Scaling this up to the number of referrals actually received by the NHS DPP prior to April 2020, cost savings of £71.4 million were estimated over the 35-year time horizon and an additional 21,472 QALYs generated. These results are robust to several sensitivity analyses.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The NHS DPP is likely to be cost-effective. Indeed, in the majority of the simulations, the NHS DPP was cost-saving and generated greater QALYs, dominating usual care. This research should serve as evidence to support the continued investment or recommissioning of diabetes prevention programmes.</p>","PeriodicalId":19770,"journal":{"name":"PharmacoEconomics Open","volume":" ","pages":"569-583"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11252105/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evaluating the Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of the English NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme using a Markov Model.\",\"authors\":\"Emma McManus\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s41669-024-00487-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In 2016, England launched the largest nationwide diabetes mellitus prevention programme, the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP). This paper seeks to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of this programme.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A Markov cohort state transition model was developed with a 35-year time horizon and yearly cycles to compare referral to the NHS DPP to usual care for individuals with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia. The modelled cohort of individuals mirrored the age profile of referrals received by the programme by April 2020. A health system perspective was taken, with costs in UK £ Sterling (price year 2020) and outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Probabilistic analysis with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations was used. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the uncertainty surrounding the base case results, particularly varying the length of time for which the effectiveness of the programme was expected to last.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In the base case, using only the observed effectiveness of the NHS DPP at 3 years, it was found that the programme is likely to dominate usual care, by generating on average 40.8 incremental QALYs whilst saving £135,755 in costs for a cohort of 1000. At a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY, 98.1% of simulations were on or under the willingness-to-pay threshold. Scaling this up to the number of referrals actually received by the NHS DPP prior to April 2020, cost savings of £71.4 million were estimated over the 35-year time horizon and an additional 21,472 QALYs generated. These results are robust to several sensitivity analyses.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The NHS DPP is likely to be cost-effective. Indeed, in the majority of the simulations, the NHS DPP was cost-saving and generated greater QALYs, dominating usual care. This research should serve as evidence to support the continued investment or recommissioning of diabetes prevention programmes.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19770,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"PharmacoEconomics Open\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"569-583\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11252105/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"PharmacoEconomics Open\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41669-024-00487-6\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/4/20 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"PharmacoEconomics Open","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41669-024-00487-6","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/4/20 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Evaluating the Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of the English NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme using a Markov Model.
Background: In 2016, England launched the largest nationwide diabetes mellitus prevention programme, the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP). This paper seeks to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of this programme.
Methods: A Markov cohort state transition model was developed with a 35-year time horizon and yearly cycles to compare referral to the NHS DPP to usual care for individuals with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia. The modelled cohort of individuals mirrored the age profile of referrals received by the programme by April 2020. A health system perspective was taken, with costs in UK £ Sterling (price year 2020) and outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Probabilistic analysis with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations was used. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the uncertainty surrounding the base case results, particularly varying the length of time for which the effectiveness of the programme was expected to last.
Results: In the base case, using only the observed effectiveness of the NHS DPP at 3 years, it was found that the programme is likely to dominate usual care, by generating on average 40.8 incremental QALYs whilst saving £135,755 in costs for a cohort of 1000. At a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY, 98.1% of simulations were on or under the willingness-to-pay threshold. Scaling this up to the number of referrals actually received by the NHS DPP prior to April 2020, cost savings of £71.4 million were estimated over the 35-year time horizon and an additional 21,472 QALYs generated. These results are robust to several sensitivity analyses.
Conclusion: The NHS DPP is likely to be cost-effective. Indeed, in the majority of the simulations, the NHS DPP was cost-saving and generated greater QALYs, dominating usual care. This research should serve as evidence to support the continued investment or recommissioning of diabetes prevention programmes.
期刊介绍：
PharmacoEconomics - Open focuses on applied research on the economic implications and health outcomes associated with drugs, devices and other healthcare interventions. The journal includes, but is not limited to, the following research areas:Economic analysis of healthcare interventionsHealth outcomes researchCost-of-illness studiesQuality-of-life studiesAdditional digital features (including animated abstracts, video abstracts, slide decks, audio slides, instructional videos, infographics, podcasts and animations) can be published with articles; these are designed to increase the visibility, readership and educational value of the journal’s content. In addition, articles published in PharmacoEconomics -Open may be accompanied by plain language summaries to assist readers who have some knowledge of, but not in-depth expertise in, the area to understand important medical advances.All manuscripts are subject to peer review by international experts. Letters to the Editor are welcomed and will be considered for publication.
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