[Short-term effects of PM10 on cause-specific mortality and the role of long-term environmental pressures in the industrial areas of Brindisi and Civitavecchia].

Objectives: the health status of people living near industrial plants is often exposed to several environmental risk factors, including air pollution. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between daily PM10 levels and cause-specific mortality in a selection of municipalities near two industrial plants from 2006 to 2015.

Design: a time-series design with Poisson regression adjusted for a predefined set of confounders was used to quantify the association between exposure, calculated as daily PM10 levels extrapolated from machine-learning models using satellite data, and cause-specific mortality.

Setting and participants: twenty municipalities near the thermal power plants in Civitavecchia and Brindisi were selected. The municipalities were then divided into three scenarios of chronic exposure derived from SPRAY simulation models of pollutant deposition.

Main outcome measures: daily cause-specific non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths defined according to the International Classification of Diseases code at the municipality level.

Results: a total of 41,942 deaths were observed in the entire area (10,503 in the Civitavecchia area and 31,439 in the Brindisi area), of which approximately 41% were due to cardiovascular causes and 8% due to respiratory causes. The association showed an increase in shortterm effects in municipalities with higher chronic levels of pollution exposure. For example, risk estimates reported as percentage increases per 10-unit increase in PM10 were 6.7% (95% CI 0.9, 12.7%) in scenario 3 (highest exposure) compared to 4.2% (-1.2, 9.9%) and 2.7% (-4.2, 10.2%) in scenarios 2 and 1, respectively, in the area near the Civitavecchia plant. Similar effects were observed for the Brindisi area.

Conclusions: despite the well-documented relationship between short-term pollution and mortality, it appears that greater chronic exposure to industrial pollutants leads to increased short-term effects of PM10. The limited number of events suggests that this study could serve as a starting point for a larger investigation.