Active Arrhythmia Pattern: A Novel Predictor of ICD Shocks-A Subanalysis From the PARTITA Study.

Background: In the PARTITA trial (Does Timing of Ventricular Tachycardia Ablation Affect Prognosis in Patients With an Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator?), antitachycardia pacing (ATP) predicted the occurrence of implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shocks. Catheter ablation of ventricular tachycardia after the first shock reduced the risk of death or worsening heart failure. A threshold of ATPs that might warrant an ablation procedure before ICD shocks is unknown. Our aim was to identify a threshold of ATPs and clinical features that predict the occurrence of shocks and cardiovascular events.

Methods: We analyzed data from 517 patients in phase A of the PARTITA study. We used classification and regression tree analysis to develop and test a risk stratification model based on arrhythmia patterns and clinical data to predict ICD shocks. Secondary end points were worsening heart failure and cardiovascular hospitalization.

Results: Classification and regression tree classified patients into 6 leaves by increasing shock probability. Patients treated with ≥5 ATPs in 6 months (active arrhythmia pattern) had the highest risk of ICD shocks (93% and 86%, training and testing samples, respectively). Patients without ATPs had the lowest (1% and 2%). Other predictors included left ventricle ejection fraction<35%, age of <60 years, and obesity. Survival analysis revealed a higher risk of worsening heart failure (hazard ratio, 5.45 [95% CI, 1.62-18.4]; P=0.006) and cardiovascular hospitalization (hazard ratio, 7.29 [95% CI, 3.66-14.5]; P<0.001) for patients with an active arrhythmia pattern compared with those without ATPs.

Conclusions: Patients with an active arrhythmia pattern (≥5 ATPs in 6 months) are associated with an increased risk of ICD shocks, as well as heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular hospitalization. These data suggest that additional treatments may be helpful to this high-risk group as a preventive strategy to reduce the incidence of major events. Further prospective randomized trials are needed to confirm the benefits of early ventricular tachycardia ablation in this setting.