Development and validation of an artificial intelligence-based model for detecting urothelial carcinoma using urine cytology images: a multicentre, diagnostic study with prospective validation.

Background: Urine cytology is an important non-invasive examination for urothelial carcinoma (UC) diagnosis and follow-up. We aimed to explore whether artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance the sensitivity of urine cytology and help avoid unnecessary endoscopy.

Methods: In this multicentre diagnostic study, consecutive patients who underwent liquid-based urine cytology examinations at four hospitals in China were included for model development and validation. Patients who declined surgery and lacked associated histopathology results, those diagnosed with rare subtype tumours of the urinary tract, or had low-quality images were excluded from the study. All liquid-based cytology slides were scanned into whole-slide images (WSIs) at 40 × magnification and the WSI-labels were derived from the corresponding histopathology results. The Precision Urine Cytology AI Solution (PUCAS) was composed of three distinct stages (patch extraction, features extraction, and classification diagnosis) and was trained to identify important WSI features associated with UC diagnosis. The diagnostic sensitivity was mainly used to validate the performance of PUCAS in retrospective and prospective validation cohorts. This study is registered with the ChiCTR, ChiCTR2300073192.

Findings: Between January 1, 2018 and October 31, 2022, 2641 patients were retrospectively recruited in the training cohort, and 2335 in retrospective validation cohorts; 400 eligible patients were enrolled in the prospective validation cohort between July 7, 2023 and September 15, 2023. The sensitivity of PUCAS ranged from 0.922 (95% CI: 0.811-0.978) to 1.000 (0.782-1.000) in retrospective validation cohorts, and was 0.896 (0.837-0.939) in prospective validation cohort. The PUCAS model also exhibited a good performance in detecting malignancy within atypical urothelial cells cases, with a sensitivity of over 0.84. In the recurrence detection scenario, PUCAS could reduce 57.5% of endoscopy use with a negative predictive value of 96.4%.

Interpretation: PUCAS may help to improve the sensitivity of urine cytology, reduce misdiagnoses of UC, avoid unnecessary endoscopy, and reduce the clinical burden in resource-limited areas. The further validation in other countries is needed.

Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China; Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China; the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars; the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province; the National Key Research and Development Programme of China; Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Centre for Urological Diseases.