住房杠杆、房屋价值和退休

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Real Estate Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.12492

Xun Bian, Zhenguo Lin, Feifei Zhu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了用贷款价值比（LTV）衡量的住房杠杆对房主退休决策的影响。我们发现，一般来说，LTV 比率升高会延迟退休。通过将当前贷款与价值比率的变化分解为（1）资产提取、（2）资产积累、（3）房屋增值和（4）房屋贬值，我们发现，资产提取和房屋贬值推动了住房杠杆与退休之间的负相关关系。相反，退休决策对资产积累和房屋增值的反应较小。我们的研究结果表明，住房杠杆对退休决策的影响是路径依赖和非对称的。我们还发现，退休过渡对房价下跌更为敏感，而退休逆转往往是由资产提取引发的。进一步的分析还显示，住房杠杆对退休的影响因家庭年龄和财务限制而异，在住房市场周期的不同阶段也各不相同。

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Housing leverage, home value, and retirement

We study the effect of housing leverage, measured using the loan‐to‐value (LTV) ratio, on homeowners' retirement decisions. We find that in general, elevated LTV ratios delay retirements. By decomposing the changes of the current LTV ratio into (1) equity extractions, (2) equity build‐up, (3) home value increases, and (4) home value decreases, we find that equity extractions and declining home value drive the negative relationship between housing leverage and retirement. In contrast, retirement decisions are less responsive to equity build‐up and home value appreciation. Our results suggest that the influence of housing leverage on retirement decisions is path‐dependent and asymmetric. We also find that transitions into retirement are more sensitive to home price declines, and retirement reversals are often triggered by equity extraction. Further analyses also reveal that the impact of housing leverage on retirement differs by household age and financial constraints, and it also varies across different stages of a housing market cycle.

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来源期刊

Real Estate Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

13.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： As the official journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, Real Estate Economics is the premier journal on real estate topics. Since 1973, Real Estate Economics has been facilitating communication among academic researchers and industry professionals and improving the analysis of real estate decisions. Articles span a wide range of issues, from tax rules to brokers" commissions to corporate real estate including housing and urban economics, and the financial economics of real estate development and investment.