Genetic predictors of population resilience: A case study of native Brook Trout in headwater streams

ObjectivePopulations of eastern Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis face threats from several sources, such as habitat fragmentation, climate change, and competition with introduced salmonids. As a native species, understanding how these populations will respond to disturbances is paramount to their management and effective conservation. A population's ability to respond to disturbance, its resilience, is influenced by several factors. One such group of factors is population genetics.MethodsWe calculated population resilience metrics based on transient dynamics using population projection matrix models. Long‐term demographic data from 23 headwater stream Brook Trout populations were used to parameterize models. Genetic data were collected, and genetic indices were calculated. Partial redundancy analysis was then used to evaluate relationships between resilience metrics and genetic indices.ResultInbreeding coefficient, rarefied allelic richness, pairwise genetic differentiation (FST), and effective population size were all found to be important variables in predicting resilience.ConclusionOur results suggest that genetic isolation may increase the demographic resilience in Brook Trout through faster generation times and higher juvenile survival, but this likely comes at the cost of increased extinction risk and truncated size structures. Genetic indices can provide insight into gene flow between populations, thus the relationship between population connectivity and resilience. Given the importance of connectivity to population resilience, restoring and maintaining movement corridors could affect resilience in headwater Brook Trout populations.