经济不确定性、冒险激励和生产管理

IF 1.8 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Hussein Abdoh, Aktham Maghyereh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的本研究旨在验证生产操纵与公司业绩变异性(基本面和股票回报率)之间的联系。本研究利用 Compustat 三十年来制造业企业的面板数据,对经济不确定时期的生产管理行为进行了调查。研究采用经济政策不确定性指数(EPU)作为关键指标。实证策略包括记录经济不确定性对生产过剩和生产不足的影响、研究高管薪酬的作用以及评估对风险的影响。研究结果研究发现,风险承担激励增加了生产过剩/生产不足,特别是在不确定性期间放大了生产不足的程度。生产偏差上升,表明企业通过参与非正常业务运营承担了更大的风险。研究的局限性/启示本研究虽然提供了有价值的见解,但也承认其固有的局限性,包括影响生产决策的因素超出了风险激励的范围。研究结果凸显了高管薪酬的潜在阴暗面,即激励做出次优风险承担决策,从而影响风险、资本成本和公司业绩。政策制定者和薪酬委员会可以利用这些见解来设计有效的制度,以减轻与生产率变化相关的道德风险问题。原创性/价值本研究通过考察经济不确定性对生产操纵的作用以及冒险动机的影响,为相关文献做出了贡献。它通过考虑实际活动操纵和强调将生产偏差分解为正值和负值的重要性,扩展了收益管理文献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economic uncertainty, risk-taking incentives and production management

Purpose

This study aims to validate the link between production manipulation and a firm’s performance variability (fundamentals and stock returns). It explores whether executives' risk-taking incentives encourage production deviations around the normal level during uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

Utilizing panel data of manufacturing firms from Compustat over three decades, the study investigates production management practices during economic uncertainty. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) is employed as a key metric. The empirical strategy involves documenting the effect of economic uncertainty on overproduction and underproduction, examining the role of executive compensation and assessing the impact on risk.

Findings

The research finds that risk-taking incentives increase over/underproduction, particularly amplifying the extent of underproduction during uncertainty. Production deviation rises, indicating that firms take greater risk by engaging in abnormal business operations. The study’s results are robust against various econometric methods, emphasizing the influence of risk-taking incentives on corporate production decisions.

Research limitations/implications

While providing valuable insights, the study acknowledges inherent limitations, including factors influencing production decisions beyond risk-taking incentives. Further research could explore additional determinants for a comprehensive understanding.

Practical implications

The findings highlight the potential dark side of executive compensation that motivates suboptimal risk-taking decisions, impacting risk, cost of capital and firm performance. Policymakers and compensation committees can use these insights to design efficient systems that mitigate moral hazard problems associated with productivity changes.

Social implications

The study emphasizes the broader social implications of production manipulation under uncertainty. It prompts discussions on the ethical considerations of managerial opportunism, its potential consequences for stakeholders and market dynamics.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by examining the role of economic uncertainty on production manipulation and the influence of risk-taking incentives. It extends the earnings management literature by considering real activity manipulation and emphasizing the importance of decomposing production deviation into positive and negative values.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
47
期刊介绍: Treasury and Financial Risk Management ■Redefining, measuring and identifying new methods to manage risk for financing decisions ■The role, costs and benefits of insurance and hedging financing decisions ■The role of rating agencies in managerial decisions Investment and Financing Decision Making ■The uses and applications of forecasting to examine financing decisions measurement and comparisons of various financing options ■The public versus private financing decision ■The decision of where to be publicly traded - including comparisons of market structures and exchanges ■Short term versus long term portfolio management - choice of securities (debt vs equity, convertible vs non-convertible)
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