{"title":"阿富汗经常账户的规模、过度性和可持续性","authors":"Abdul Hadi Sultani, U. Faisal","doi":"10.1177/00157325241239724","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article empirically investigates the extent, excessiveness and sustainability of Afghanistan’s current account (CA) deficits using quarterly data from 2004-Q2 to 2019-Q4. The framework of this article is the intertemporal approach to the CA using the present value model. First, a descriptive analysis of Afghanistan’s CA is conducted. Next, a bivariate vector auto-regressive (VAR) model is applied to estimate the optimal CA of the economy, which can be compared to the actual one to determine how excessiveness the actual CA is relative to the optimal one. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Johnson co-integration tests are applied to examine the necessary and sufficient conditions for the sustainability of the CA. Findings indicate that Afghanistan’s actual CA deficits are excessive and too variant relative to the optimal one; therefore, the deficit is considered problematic. The empirical results further disclose that Afghanistan’s CA is unsustainable. The lack of co-integration between real net output and real private consumption and between exports and imports suggests that the unsustainability is mainly due to the weakness of domestic production in satisfying internal demand and the failure of real export volume to equilibrate the trade balance. Hence, this study recommends increasing the level of domestic output, and reduction in imports supported by improvements in saving rate, infrastructure and export to improve the CA.JEL Codes: F14, F32, F39, C22","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Extent, Excessiveness and Sustainability of Afghanistan’s Current Account\",\"authors\":\"Abdul Hadi Sultani, U. Faisal\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/00157325241239724\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This article empirically investigates the extent, excessiveness and sustainability of Afghanistan’s current account (CA) deficits using quarterly data from 2004-Q2 to 2019-Q4. The framework of this article is the intertemporal approach to the CA using the present value model. First, a descriptive analysis of Afghanistan’s CA is conducted. Next, a bivariate vector auto-regressive (VAR) model is applied to estimate the optimal CA of the economy, which can be compared to the actual one to determine how excessiveness the actual CA is relative to the optimal one. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Johnson co-integration tests are applied to examine the necessary and sufficient conditions for the sustainability of the CA. Findings indicate that Afghanistan’s actual CA deficits are excessive and too variant relative to the optimal one; therefore, the deficit is considered problematic. The empirical results further disclose that Afghanistan’s CA is unsustainable. The lack of co-integration between real net output and real private consumption and between exports and imports suggests that the unsustainability is mainly due to the weakness of domestic production in satisfying internal demand and the failure of real export volume to equilibrate the trade balance. Hence, this study recommends increasing the level of domestic output, and reduction in imports supported by improvements in saving rate, infrastructure and export to improve the CA.JEL Codes: F14, F32, F39, C22\",\"PeriodicalId\":29933,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Foreign Trade Review\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Foreign Trade Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325241239724\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Foreign Trade Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325241239724","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本文利用 2004 年第二季度至 2019 年第四季度的季度数据,对阿富汗经常账户赤字的程度、过度性和可持续性进行了实证研究。本文的框架是使用现值模型对经常账户赤字进行跨期分析。首先,对阿富汗的赤字进行了描述性分析。然后,运用双变量向量自回归(VAR)模型估算出阿富汗经济的最优现值,并将其与实际现值进行比较,以确定实际现值相对于最优现值的过剩程度。应用增强型 Dickey-Fuller 和 Johnson 协整检验来研究 CA 可持续性的必要和充分条件。研究结果表明,阿富汗的实际赤字相对于最优赤字而言过高且变化过大;因此,赤字被认为是有问题的。实证结果进一步表明,阿富汗的赤字是不可持续的。实际净产出和实际私人消费之间以及出口和进口之间缺乏协整关系,这表明不可持续的主要原因是国内生产无法满足内部需求,以及实际出口量无法平衡贸易平衡。因此,本研究建议提高国内产出水平,并通过提高储蓄率、改善基础设施和出口来减少进口,以改善长春市的状况:F14, F32, F39, C22
The Extent, Excessiveness and Sustainability of Afghanistan’s Current Account
This article empirically investigates the extent, excessiveness and sustainability of Afghanistan’s current account (CA) deficits using quarterly data from 2004-Q2 to 2019-Q4. The framework of this article is the intertemporal approach to the CA using the present value model. First, a descriptive analysis of Afghanistan’s CA is conducted. Next, a bivariate vector auto-regressive (VAR) model is applied to estimate the optimal CA of the economy, which can be compared to the actual one to determine how excessiveness the actual CA is relative to the optimal one. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Johnson co-integration tests are applied to examine the necessary and sufficient conditions for the sustainability of the CA. Findings indicate that Afghanistan’s actual CA deficits are excessive and too variant relative to the optimal one; therefore, the deficit is considered problematic. The empirical results further disclose that Afghanistan’s CA is unsustainable. The lack of co-integration between real net output and real private consumption and between exports and imports suggests that the unsustainability is mainly due to the weakness of domestic production in satisfying internal demand and the failure of real export volume to equilibrate the trade balance. Hence, this study recommends increasing the level of domestic output, and reduction in imports supported by improvements in saving rate, infrastructure and export to improve the CA.JEL Codes: F14, F32, F39, C22