资本流动逆转与货币危机：资本流动类型重要吗？

IF 1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Review of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI:10.1111/roie.12753

Mengting Zhang, Andreas Steiner, Jakob de Haan, Haizhen Yang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们分析了几类资本流动的逆转如何影响新兴市场和发展中经济体的货币危机。对数模型的估计结果表明，在新兴市场经济体中，（股票和债务）证券组合流动的逆转会显著增加货币危机的可能性。在发展中经济体，证券组合债务流动和银行资金流动的逆转对货币危机有显著的积极影响。最后，我们的研究结果表明，拥有成熟金融体系和固定汇率制度的国家在资本流动冲击后发生货币危机的可能性较小。资本账户自由化的中介作用因国家类型而异。

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Capital flow reversals and currency crises: Do capital flow types matter?

We analyze how reversals of several types of capital flows impact currency crises in emerging market and developing economies. Estimates of logit models show that reversals of (equity and debt) portfolio flows significantly increase the likelihood of currency crises in emerging market economies. In developing economies, reversals of portfolio debt flows and banking flows have a significant positive impact on currency crises. Finally, our results suggest that countries with mature financial systems and fixed exchange rate regimes are less likely to experience a currency crisis after a capital flow shock. The mediating role of capital account liberalization varies by country type.

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来源期刊

Review of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Review of International Economics is devoted to the publication of high-quality articles on a full range of topics in international economics. The Review comprises controversial and innovative thought and detailed contributions from other directly related fields such as economic development; trade and the environment; and political economy. Whether theoretical, empirical or policy-oriented, its relevance to real world problems is of paramount concern.