Advancing post-traumatic seizure classification and biomarker identification: Information decomposition based multimodal fusion and explainable machine learning with missing neuroimaging data

A late post-traumatic seizure (LPTS), a consequence of traumatic brain injury (TBI), can potentially evolve into a lifelong condition known as post-traumatic epilepsy (PTE). Presently, the mechanism that triggers epileptogenesis in TBI patients remains elusive, inspiring the epilepsy community to devise ways to predict which TBI patients will develop PTE and to identify potential biomarkers. In response to this need, our study collected comprehensive, longitudinal multimodal data from 48 TBI patients across multiple participating institutions. A supervised binary classification task was created, contrasting data from LPTS patients with those without LPTS. To accommodate missing modalities in some subjects, we took a two-pronged approach. Firstly, we extended a graphical model-based Bayesian estimator to directly classify subjects with incomplete modality. Secondly, we explored conventional imputation techniques. The imputed multimodal information was then combined, following several fusion and dimensionality reduction techniques found in the literature, and subsequently fitted to a kernel- or a tree-based classifier. For this fusion, we proposed two new algorithms: recursive elimination of correlated components (RECC) that filters information based on the correlation between the already selected features, and information decomposition and selective fusion (IDSF), which effectively recombines information from decomposed multimodal features. Our cross-validation findings showed that the proposed IDSF algorithm delivers superior performance based on the area under the curve (AUC) score. Ultimately, after rigorous statistical comparisons and interpretable machine learning examination using Shapley values of the most frequently selected features, we recommend the two following magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) abnormalities as potential biomarkers: the left anterior limb of internal capsule in diffusion MRI (dMRI), and the right middle temporal gyrus in functional MRI (fMRI).