全球化对中国经济增长、外商直接投资流入和能源使用对空气污染的影响:向量误差修正模型方法

Eren Can Gurbuz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在经济全球化的过程中,中国的空气污染自 2005 年以来一直位居世界第一。中国大量排放二氧化碳,直接或间接导致全球变暖,这可能是中国经济全球化进程的刺激因素,需要加以观察。因此,本文旨在观察从全球化的确切起点,即打开中国国门(1979 年)到中美贸易战爆发(2013 年),中国开始改变国际政策,外商直接投资(FDI)流入、能源使用、二氧化碳排放、经济全球化、工业部门在 GDP 中的比重以及经济增长之间的直接和间接影响。通过向量误差修正模型(VECM)和格兰杰因果检验,得出变量之间的因果方向和影响。实证结果表明,在中国,能源使用、外商直接投资(污染型外商直接投资)和经济全球化导致了新兴的外商直接投资主导型经济增长和空气污染的加剧。格兰杰因果检验结果表明,能源使用与空气污染之间存在直接单向因果关系,能源使用与经济增长之间存在通过外商直接投资的间接单向因果关系。本研究提出了鼓励清洁生产和节能技术的重要政策,以减少中国的空气污染,并在全球化过程中刺激中国的经济增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The impacts of economic growth, foreign direct investment inflows, and energy usage on air pollution through globalization in China: A vector error correction model approach
During its economic globalization, China ranked first in the world regarding air pollution since 2005. China's massive carbon dioxide emission that causes global warming, directly or indirectly, can be stimulated by its economic globalization process, which needs to be observed. Hence, this article aims to observe the direct and indirect impacts among foreign direct investment (FDI) inward, energy usage, carbon dioxide emissions, economic globalization, the share of the industry sector in GDP, and economic growth from the exact starting point of globalization, in other words opening the gate of China (1979) to the intensive trade war between China and the USA, that began to change international policies (2013) of China. The vector error correction model (VECM) and the Granger causality tests are performed to obtain the causality directions and impacts among the variables. The empirical results reveal emerging FDI-led economic growth and the existence of cultivating air pollution owing to energy use, FDI inward (polluting-FDI), and economic globalization in China. Regarding the output of Granger causality tests, direct unidirectional causality from energy use to air pollution and indirect unidirectional causality from energy use to economic growth through inward FDI are observed. This study proposes crucial policies to encourage cleaner production and energy-saving technologies that reduce air pollution of China and stimulate China's economic growth during globalization.
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