印度尼西亚大选前夕的巨额腐败危机:对民选政府质量的影响

Mohammad Ali Nur Sidiq, Mutia Wahyuni
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引用次数: 0

摘要

印度尼西亚的腐败案件通常在大选前一年达到高峰,往往伴随着全国巨贪现象的出现。大选的高物流成本历来助长了腐败。本研究分析了印尼采用开放式选举制度后的腐败现象,包括巨额腐败,并评估了腐败对政府服务质量和规章制度的影响。研究方法包括探索性数据分析、向量误差修正模型(VECM)和比较普通最小二乘法。研究结果表明:(1)印尼的民主与中央(行政和立法)和地区(地区首长选举)层面的腐败和巨额腐败密切相关;(2)大选前的腐败和巨额腐败趋势预计将在 2024 年和 2029 年的选举中持续存在;(3)政治腐败导致政府服务质量和监管不力;(4)大选前的腐败冲击将在二十多年内影响政府质量。这项研究强调了印尼进行选举程序和腐败执法改革的必要性。选举前的腐败如果得不到缓解,会导致治理不善和公共福利减少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Crisis of Mega-Corruption on the Eve of Indonesian General Elections: Its Implications for The Quality of Elected Governance
Corruption cases in Indonesia typically peak in the year leading up to general elections, often accompanied by the emergence of the National Mega Corruption phenomenon. The high logistics costs of general elections have historically fueled corruption. This study analyzes corruption, including mega corruption, following Indonesia’s adoption of an open election system and assesses the impact of corruption on government service quality and regulations. Research methods include Exploratory Data Analysis, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Comparative Ordinary Least Square. Findings show that (1) Democracy in Indonesia is closely linked to corruption and mega corruption at both central (executive and legislative) and regional (regional head election) levels; (2) Corruption and mega corruption trends preceding general elections are expected to persist in the 2024 and 2029 elections; (3) Political corruption leads to poor government service quality and regulation; (4) The shock of pre-election corruption will affect government quality for over two decades. This research emphasizes the need for electoral process and corruption enforcement reforms in Indonesia. Unmitigated, pre-election corruption can lead to poor governance and reduced public welfare.
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