用基于代理的方法模拟各地区的人口状况

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
E. N. Timushev, Yulia V. Dubrovskaya, E. Kozonogova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是根据医疗保健系统参数的变化来预测地区一级的人口变化,医疗保健系统被认为是影响人口数量及其质量特征的重要因素。假设医疗保健系统的改革反映了国家监管的制度性质,并在模型中起到外生冲击的作用。在基于代理人的模型基础上,建立了一个由两个地区组成的模型。该模型考虑到了根据私人收入水平做出决策的代理人的迁移。根据所选择的反映该地区制度特点的医疗保健系统质量制度,提出了人口指标建模的各种方案。该模型是根据彼尔姆地区和斯维尔德洛夫斯克地区 2012-2019 年的统计数据计算得出的。根据地区实际数据对模型进行的验证证实了其可操作性和适当性。在地区政府部门的预算约束下,医疗保健系统的冲击与相应的预算支出相关联,并对地区劳动力市场的移民动态以及模拟的健康指标产生影响。模拟结果证实了所介绍方法的有效性,该方法可用于制定地区战略以及规划和评估国家社会政策改革的后果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling the demographic situation in the regions by agent-based approach
The aim of the paper is to predict demographic changes at the regional level, based on the variation of the parameters of the healthcare system presumed to be a significant factor in both the number of population and its qualitative characteristics. It is assumed that a reform of the healthcare system reflects the institutional nature of state regulation and serves functionally as an exogenous shock in the model. Based on the agent-based modeling a model consisting of two regions has been developed. It takes into account the migration of agents making decisions based on the level of private income. Various scenarios for modeling demographic indicators are presented, depending on the selected quality regime of the healthcare system that reflects the institutional features of the region. The model is calculated based on the statistics for the Perm Region and the Sverdlovsk Region for the period 2012—2019. The approbation of the model on actual regional data confirmed its operability and adequacy. Shocks in the healthcare system are associated with the corresponding budget expenditures under budget constraints of the regional government sector and have an impact on the dynamics of migration at regional labor markets, as well as on the simulated health indicators. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the presented methodological approach, which can be used in the development of regional strategies, as well as planning and assessing the consequences of state reforms in social policy.
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来源期刊
Voprosy Ekonomiki
Voprosy Ekonomiki ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
25.00%
发文量
86
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