盈利能力、股利政策和股票价格

M. AlAli, Tarek N. AlQamlas, Saif R. AlHajri, Naser S. AlBasri, Abdulaziz S. AlSalem
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摘要

研究人员对股利政策如何影响股价一直存在争议,而且这种模棱两可的关系在国际市场上也各不相同。本研究旨在探讨股价与股利政策数量和盈利能力变量之间的关系。根据 2014 年至 2022 年期间在科威特证券交易所(KSE)上市的五家保险公司的信息,研究结果表明,55.3% 的股票价格可以用盈利能力和股利政策相关因素来解释。本研究采用 OLS 回归法研究了因变量股票价格与自变量每股收益 (EPS)、股息率 (DY)、收益价格比 (EP)、风险溢价 (RP) 和留存率 (RR) 之间的关系。回归分析的结果表明,股价与每股收益(EPS)之间存在显著的直接关系,表明投资者会选择高利润的股票。在 99% 的置信水平下,盈利价格比(EP)同样显示出与股价之间存在统计意义上的显著直接关系。在 90% 的置信度水平上,风险溢价(RP)也显示出显著的直接关系。唯一一个与股价呈明显负相关的变量是股息率(DY),这表明投资者选择更稳定的派息而不是不确定的未来资本收益。相反,留存率(RR)对股价的直接影响微乎其微。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Profitability, Dividend Policy and Stock Prices
There has always been controversy among researchers over how dividend policies affect share prices, and this equivocal relationship varies throughout international markets. This study is set to examine the relation between share prices and number of dividend policy and profitability variables. Based on the information from five insurance companies that are listed on Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period 2014 and 2022, findings indicates that 55.3% of stock prices could be explained by factors related to profitability and dividend policy. The relationship between stock price, as a dependent variable, and earnings per share (EPS), dividend yield (DY), earning to price ratio (EP), risk premium (RP), and retention ratio (RR), as independent variables, was investigated in this study using OLS regression approach. The results of the regression analysis demonstrated a significant direct relationship between stock price and earnings per share (EPS), suggesting that investors choose highly profitable shares. At the 99% confidence level, the earnings to price ratio (EP) likewise revealed a statistically significant direct relationship with the stock price. At 90% confidence level, risk premium (RP) also shown a substantial direct relationship. The only variable that significantly correlated negatively with share prices was dividend yield (DY), suggesting that investors choose more stable payouts over uncertain future capital gains. Conversely, the retention ratio (RR) demonstrated a negligible direct impact on share prices.  
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