将累积碳排放与可观测到的气候影响联系起来

Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, H. D. Matthews
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摘要

人为二氧化碳排放正在引起气候变化,而气候变化的影响已经影响到地球上的每一个地区。本综述的目的是研究可与累积二氧化碳排放量(CE)定量联系起来的气候影响,重点是与 CE 成线性比例的影响。综述的研究表明,CE 与各种可观测到的气候影响之间存在比例关系,如区域变暖、极端日气温、强降水事件、气温和降水的季节性变化、全球海洋平均降水量增加、北冰洋九月海冰减少、表层海洋酸化、全球平均海平面上升、不同的海洋热浪特征、非人灵长类动物栖息地生存能力的变化,以及极端高温暴露造成的劳动生产率损失。根据所查阅的文献,我们报告了一万亿吨二氧化碳当量(1 Tt C)对这些气候影响的估计值。这些估计值与气候政策高度相关,因为它们为评估与人类活动排放的每一二氧化碳量相关的气候影响提供了一种方法。为了扩大可与二氧化碳排放量定量联系起来的气候影响的数量,我们提出了一个估算二氧化碳排放量造成的额外气候影响的框架。该框架以累积排放的瞬态气候响应(TCRE)为基础,适用于与全球变暖成线性比例的气候影响。我们说明了如何将该框架应用于量化气候变化对物理、生物和社会造成的气候影响。通过这一回顾,我们强调每吨二氧化碳的排放都会对自然和人类系统产生影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Linking cumulative carbon emissions to observable climate impacts
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are causing climate change, and impacts of climate change are already affecting every region on Earth. The purpose of this review is to investigate climate impacts that can be linked quantitatively to cumulative CO2 emissions (CE), with a focus on impacts scaling linearly with CE. The reviewed studies indicate a proportionality between CE and various observable climate impacts such as regional warming, extreme daily temperatures, heavy precipitation events, seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation, global mean precipitation increase over ocean, sea ice decline in September across the Arctic Ocean, surface ocean acidification, global mean sea level rise, different marine heatwave characteristics, changes in habitat viability for non-human primates, as well as labour productivity loss due to extreme heat exposure. From the reviewed literature, we report estimates of these climate impacts resulting from one trillion tonne of CE (1 Tt C). These estimates are highly relevant for climate policy as they provide a way for assessing climate impacts associated with every amount of CO2 emitted by human activities. With the goal of expanding the number of climate impacts that could be linked quantitatively to CE, we propose a framework for estimating additional climate impacts resulting from CE. This framework builds on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE), and it is applicable to climate impacts that scale linearly with global warming. We illustrate how the framework can be applied to quantify physical, biological, and societal climate impacts resulting from CE. With this review, we highlight that each tonne of CO2 emissions matters in terms of resulting impacts on natural and human systems.
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