货币供应量、利率和通货膨胀率对经济增长的影响:摩洛哥案例

Mohammed El-Khodary
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们的研究旨在探讨 1990 至 2020 年间货币供应量、利率和通货膨胀率对摩洛哥经济增长的影响。本研究利用来自摩洛哥中央银行和世界银行发展指标的货币供应量、利率和通货膨胀率年度数据,实证分析了主要货币环境如何相互作用并影响摩洛哥的国内生产总值。为了探索选定的宏观经济指标对经济增长的复杂相互作用和因果效应,我们采用了基于向量自回归(VAR)模型和协整的定量分析,并使用 R 编程语言实现。主要研究结果表明,货币供应量能显著促进经济增长,而利率则会产生负面影响。此外,通货膨胀对短期经济增长有积极影响。这些见解加深了人们对货币政策在促进经济发展方面所起作用的理解。这项研究填补了摩洛哥经济动态方面的空白,为决策者制定更有效的货币战略提供了指导,从而丰富了学术文献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Money Supply, Interest Rate and Inflation Rate on Economic Growth: A Case of Morocco
The purpose of our study is to examine the impact of money supply, interest rate and inflation rate on the economic growth in Morocco from 1990 to 2020. This research empirically analyzes how the key monetary settings interact and influence Morocco's Gross Domestic Product, using annual data on money supply, interest rates, and inflation sourced from the Moroccan Central Bank and the World Bank development Indicators. To explore the complex interactions and causal effects of the selected macroeconomic indicator on economic growth, we have employed a quantitative analysis based on the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and cointegration, implemented using the R programming language. The main findings reveal that money supply significantly boosts economic growth, while interest rates have negative effects. Moreover, inflation positively influences short-term economic growth. These insights enhance understanding of the role that monetary policy plays in promoting economic development. This research enriches the academic literature by addressing a gap concerning Morocco’s economic dynamics and guiding policymakers to develop more effective monetary strategies.
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