在 21 世纪 CMIP6 预测中,强迫温度响应在北极的稳定放大但取决于模型

Stephanie Hay, J. Screen, J. Catto
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们利用 CMIP6 多模式集合和单一模式初始条件大型历史和未来情景模拟集合,研究了北极增温(AA)预测的不确定性来源。在 CMIP6 多模式平均值中,年平均 AA 比率在不同时间和不同情景下都稳定在 2.5 左右,因此 AA 幅值的情景不确定性极小,可以忽略不计。在低排放和高排放情景下,由于不同的根本原因,会出现与稳定值的偏差,后者主要体现在夏季和秋季。对模型不确定性的最佳估计至少比 CMIP6 中情景的不确定性大一个数量级。大型集合显示,在 21 世纪的大部分时间里,不可还原的内部变率与模式不确定性的大小相似,但在 21 世纪末的最低排放情景下除外,因为在该情景下,不可还原的内部变率可能是模式不确定性的两倍。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections
We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic Amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 multi-model mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, both in time and across scenarios, resulting in negligibly small scenario uncertainty in the magnitude of AA. Deviations from the steady value can be found at the low and high emission scenarios due to different root causes, with the latter being mostly evident in the summer and autumn seasons. Best estimates of model uncertainty are at least an order of magnitude larger than scenario uncertainty in CMIP6. The large ensembles reveal that irreducible internal variability has a similar magnitude to model uncertainty for most of the 21st century, except in the lowest emission scenario at the end of the 21st century when it could be twice as large.
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