A Control-Theoretic Spatio-Temporal Model for Wildfire Smoke Propagation Using UAV-Based Air Pollutant Measurements

Wildfires have the potential to cause severe damage to vegetation, property and most importantly, human life. In order to minimize these negative impacts, it is crucial that wildfires are detected at the earliest possible stages. A potential solution for early wildfire detection is to utilize unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that are capable of tracking the chemical concentration gradient of smoke emitted by wildfires. A spatiotemporal model of wildfire smoke plume dynamics can allow for efficient tracking of the chemicals by utilizing both real-time information from sensors as well as future information from the model predictions. This study investigates a spatiotemporal modeling approach based on subspace identification (SID) to develop a data-driven smoke plume dynamics model for the purposes of early wildfire detection. The model was learned using CO2 concentration data which were collected using an air quality sensor package onboard a UAV during two prescribed burn experiments. Our model was evaluated by comparing the predicted values to the measured values at random locations and showed mean errors of 6.782 ppm and 30.01 ppm from the two experiments. Additionally, our model was shown to outperform the commonly used Gaussian puff model (GPM) which showed mean errors of 25.799 ppm and 104.492 ppm, respectively.