全球人类生育率下降的原因是什么?需要采用多学科方法研究其根本机制

R. J. Aitken
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去 250 年里,人类人口急剧膨胀的时期即将结束。全世界的总和生育率都在急剧下降,高度工业化的国家,包括中国和东南亚的 "老虎经济体",其人口在未来几十年都将大幅下降。这一变化对社会经济、地缘政治和环境的影响是巨大的,需要对其背后的机制进行多学科研究。在短期内,社会经济因素,尤其是城市化和延迟生育是生育率下降的强大推动力。与此同时,肥胖等生活方式因素以及环境中存在的大量生殖毒性物质,包括空气传播的污染物、纳米塑料和电磁辐射,也严重损害了生殖健康。从长远来看,随着人口结构的转型,家庭规模的缩小将减少对高生育力基因的选择压力,从而导致人类生育力的逐步下降。矛盾的是,辅助生殖技术的大规模应用,也可能通过鼓励在人口中保留生育力低下的基因型而导致这种生育力的损失。由于伴随人口结构转型而出现的生育率下降似乎无处不在,这对我们人类的公共健康可能会产生破坏性影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
What is driving the global decline of human fertility? Need for a multidisciplinary approach to the underlying mechanisms
An intense period of human population expansion over the past 250 years is about to cease. Total fertility rates are falling dramatically all over the world such that highly industrialized nations, including China and the tiger economies of SE Asia, will see their populations decline significantly in the coming decades. The socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental ramifications of this change are considerable and invite a multidisciplinary consideration of the underlying mechanisms. In the short-term, socioeconomic factors, particularly urbanization and delayed childbearing are powerful drivers of reduced fertility. In parallel, lifestyle factors such as obesity and the presence of numerous reproductive toxicants in the environment, including air-borne pollutants, nanoplastics and electromagnetic radiation, are seriously compromising reproductive health. In the longer term, it is hypothesized that the reduction in family size that accompanies the demographic transition will decrease selection pressure on high fertility genes leading to a progressive loss of human fecundity. Paradoxically, the uptake of assisted reproductive technologies at scale, may also contribute to such fecundity loss by encouraging the retention of poor fertility genotypes within the population. Since the decline in fertility rate that accompanies the demographic transition appears to be ubiquitous, the public health implications for our species are potentially devastating.
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