{"title":"具有短利率风险的均衡资产定价","authors":"Alessandro Sbuelz","doi":"10.1007/s10203-024-00442-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>I study the exact percentage price reaction (in absolute value) to changes in the short rate for long-lived assets in a tractable long-run risk equilibrium model with fluctuating expected growth rates. Calibration reveals that, under time-additive expected utility, perpetuities with constant coupons exhibit a larger effective duration than the absolute value of the stock price logarithmic derivative due to a mild positive comovement between short rates and expected dividend growth. Conversely, under Epstein-Zin preferences with unit elasticity of intertemporal substitution, the perpetuity’s effective duration is smaller due to a pronounced positive comovement between short rates and expected dividend growth. My findings suggest that strong persistence in fundamentals contributes to non-linearities in the equilibrium log prices of long-lived assets. (JEL Classification Code: G12). Keywords: equilibrium short rate, long-run risk, effective duration, stock pricing, perpetuity/consol pricing.</p>","PeriodicalId":43711,"journal":{"name":"Decisions in Economics and Finance","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Equilibrium asset pricing with short rate risk\",\"authors\":\"Alessandro Sbuelz\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10203-024-00442-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>I study the exact percentage price reaction (in absolute value) to changes in the short rate for long-lived assets in a tractable long-run risk equilibrium model with fluctuating expected growth rates. Calibration reveals that, under time-additive expected utility, perpetuities with constant coupons exhibit a larger effective duration than the absolute value of the stock price logarithmic derivative due to a mild positive comovement between short rates and expected dividend growth. Conversely, under Epstein-Zin preferences with unit elasticity of intertemporal substitution, the perpetuity’s effective duration is smaller due to a pronounced positive comovement between short rates and expected dividend growth. My findings suggest that strong persistence in fundamentals contributes to non-linearities in the equilibrium log prices of long-lived assets. (JEL Classification Code: G12). Keywords: equilibrium short rate, long-run risk, effective duration, stock pricing, perpetuity/consol pricing.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":43711,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Decisions in Economics and Finance\",\"volume\":\"29 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Decisions in Economics and Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-024-00442-4\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Decisions in Economics and Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-024-00442-4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS","Score":null,"Total":0}
I study the exact percentage price reaction (in absolute value) to changes in the short rate for long-lived assets in a tractable long-run risk equilibrium model with fluctuating expected growth rates. Calibration reveals that, under time-additive expected utility, perpetuities with constant coupons exhibit a larger effective duration than the absolute value of the stock price logarithmic derivative due to a mild positive comovement between short rates and expected dividend growth. Conversely, under Epstein-Zin preferences with unit elasticity of intertemporal substitution, the perpetuity’s effective duration is smaller due to a pronounced positive comovement between short rates and expected dividend growth. My findings suggest that strong persistence in fundamentals contributes to non-linearities in the equilibrium log prices of long-lived assets. (JEL Classification Code: G12). Keywords: equilibrium short rate, long-run risk, effective duration, stock pricing, perpetuity/consol pricing.
期刊介绍:
Decisions in Economics and Finance: A Journal of Applied Mathematics is the official publication of the Association for Mathematics Applied to Social and Economic Sciences (AMASES). It provides a specialised forum for the publication of research in all areas of mathematics as applied to economics, finance, insurance, management and social sciences. Primary emphasis is placed on original research concerning topics in mathematics or computational techniques which are explicitly motivated by or contribute to the analysis of economic or financial problems.