气候变化和人为干预对中国湟水流域径流减少的归因分析

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrology Research Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.2166/nh.2024.130

Pengquan Wang, Runjie Li, Shengkui Cao

引用次数: 0

摘要

View largeDownload slideView largeDownload slide Close modal为了实现湟水流域的可持续发展目标，在气候变化（CC）和人为干预（HI）的双重影响下加强水资源的适应性管理具有重要意义。本文采用多种数理统计方法确定了湟水流域的径流趋势和断点。基于布迪科假说、互补法和 SWAT 水文模型，定量判别了 CC 和 HI 对径流下降的弹性及其贡献。结果表明：(1) 径流呈下降趋势，径流断点出现在 1990 年；(2) 弹性系数表明 P、ET0 和 n 增加 1%，径流分别增加 2.19%、减少 1.19%和减少 1.52%；(3) 布迪科框架确定 CC 和 HI 对 HRB 径流下降的贡献率分别为 37.(3) 布德科框架确定了 CC 和 HI 对 HRB 径流量下降的贡献率分别为 37.98%-41.86% 和 58.14%-62.02%，而 SWAT 水文模型估算的贡献率分别为 38.72% 和 61.28%；(4) HI 是 HRB 径流量下降的主要因素，而取水和水利工程建设等直接人为干扰是主要驱动因素。这些研究结果对人力资源局的水资源规划和管理具有重要的科学意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Attribution discernment of climate change and human interventions to runoff decline in Huangshui River Basin, China

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To achieve sustainable development goals in Huangshui River Basin (HRB), strengthening adaptive water resources management under the dual impact of climate change (CC) and human interventions (HI) is of great significance. Multiple mathematical and statistical methods were employed to determine the runoff trend and breakpoint in HRB. The elasticity of CC and HI on the runoff decline and their contributions were quantitatively discerned based on the Budyko hypothesis, complementary method, and SWAT hydrological model. The results show that (1) the runoff showed a decreasing trend, with a runoff breakpoint in 1990; (2) the elasticity coefficients indicated a 1% increase in P, ET₀, and n, leading to a 2.19% increase, a 1.19% decrease, and a 1.52% decrease in the runoff, respectively; (3) the Budyko framework determined the contribution of CC and HI to runoff decline in HRB to be 37.98–41.86% and 58.14–62.02%, respectively, and that estimated by SWAT hydrological model to be 38.72 and 61.28%, respectively; (4) HI were the primary factor for runoff decline in HRB, where direct anthropogenic disturbances such as water withdrawals and water conservancy project construction were the main drivers. The findings have important scientific significance for water resources planning and management in HRB.

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来源期刊

Hydrology Research WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

7.40%

发文量

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.