Extending Grime's CSR model to predict plant demographic responses across resource availability gradients: evidence from the patagonian steppes

Sexual reproduction, growth, and survival are crucial demographic strategies for plant population viability. Here, we propose a conceptual model predicting demographic responses of species based on their ecological strategy and the heterogeneity of environmental conditions within a biogeographical unit and then applied it to a case study from a 5˚ latitudinal gradient in the Patagonian steppes. We also aim to disentangle genetic from environmental effects on demographic responses. We performed in situ and common garden experiments with two species from six local populations of the Occidental Phytogeographical District of the Patagonian steppes. Species differ in key ecological traits, and thus fit into Grime's model for evolutionary strategies in plants: one as competitive species and the other as stress‐tolerant species. We calculated population growth rate (λ) and performed elasticity analyses to compare the contribution of each demographic strategy to population fitness between species and among local populations distributed along 600 km latitudinal gradient with differences in mean annual precipitation (MAP). We highlight four results. First, the competitive species change from sexual reproduction to growth as MAP increases. Second, the stress‐tolerant species relied on growth and survival along the MAP gradient. Third, interannual variation in resource availability modulated demographic responses for both strategies. Fourth, based on the comparison of the in situ and common garden experiments, we submit that demographic responses were genetically driven. Our study shows that demographic responses can be roughly predicted by the ecological strategy across environmental gradients. We show that differences arise not only between species, but also were genetically driven differences within species among local populations. Scaling up plant‐level responses to population‐level dynamics allows for a process‐based understanding of current and future biogeographical species organization. Furthermore, conservation and restoration efforts should be guided by demographic strategies underlying population viability.