{"title":"在现代信息环境中应用冰盖模型预测冰层形成日期的经验：西伯利亚东北部河流案例研究","authors":"M. I. Sil’nitskaya","doi":"10.3103/s1068373924010047","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The ice sheet model developed by L.G. Shulyakovskii for calculating ice formation dates on water bodies is presented. A possibility of applying this model for predicting ice formation dates based on the information system of the Hydrometcenter of Russia is shown. The model is implemented in the Automated Operational Data Processing System for the large navigable rivers of northeastern Siberia. Forecast sites at which the morphometric parameters of the model were obtained from long-term observations are distinguished on these rivers. The analysis of the state of the information databases used to automate calculations revealed a possibility to increase the lead time of the forecasts of the ice phenomena onset up to 10 days. The verification of the floating ice formation date forecasts produced using the model in operational mode over 2014–2022 is performed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Experience of Applying the Ice Sheet Model for Predicting Ice Formation Dates in Modern Information Environment: A Case Study for Rivers of Northeastern Siberia\",\"authors\":\"M. I. Sil’nitskaya\",\"doi\":\"10.3103/s1068373924010047\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Abstract</h3><p>The ice sheet model developed by L.G. Shulyakovskii for calculating ice formation dates on water bodies is presented. A possibility of applying this model for predicting ice formation dates based on the information system of the Hydrometcenter of Russia is shown. The model is implemented in the Automated Operational Data Processing System for the large navigable rivers of northeastern Siberia. Forecast sites at which the morphometric parameters of the model were obtained from long-term observations are distinguished on these rivers. The analysis of the state of the information databases used to automate calculations revealed a possibility to increase the lead time of the forecasts of the ice phenomena onset up to 10 days. The verification of the floating ice formation date forecasts produced using the model in operational mode over 2014–2022 is performed.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49581,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology\",\"volume\":\"30 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373924010047\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373924010047","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Experience of Applying the Ice Sheet Model for Predicting Ice Formation Dates in Modern Information Environment: A Case Study for Rivers of Northeastern Siberia
Abstract
The ice sheet model developed by L.G. Shulyakovskii for calculating ice formation dates on water bodies is presented. A possibility of applying this model for predicting ice formation dates based on the information system of the Hydrometcenter of Russia is shown. The model is implemented in the Automated Operational Data Processing System for the large navigable rivers of northeastern Siberia. Forecast sites at which the morphometric parameters of the model were obtained from long-term observations are distinguished on these rivers. The analysis of the state of the information databases used to automate calculations revealed a possibility to increase the lead time of the forecasts of the ice phenomena onset up to 10 days. The verification of the floating ice formation date forecasts produced using the model in operational mode over 2014–2022 is performed.
期刊介绍：
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.
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